Worth noting is Wilson's is much more a boutique private...

Worth noting is Wilson's is much more a boutique private investment bank/wealth manager than a broker ... and so Sam's research is more "buy side" than "sell side" (for those that follow Rock Stock ... the earlier interview with Trent Barnett of Eurox-Hartleys is "sell side" research ... more or less targeted at selling stock to retail investors)

Sam has some very interesting things to say about Atlantic and just generally. What he says about Atlantic I think we already know ... so classic "Behavorial Finance" confirmation bias (for me anyway) ... e.g.

"I think that the work the company has done over the past 12 months in derisking the project in working with the Ghanians to get the MILF - the Sovereign Wealth Fund- investment, to get the mining license over the line, it's been outstanding."

"we're comfortable that when I go and calculate an NPV or a discounted cash flow for Ewoyaa and for Atlantic more broadly, that matches what my price target for the stock. We're up at over $1/sh, currently less than 40 cents, and I'm happy to stick by that with conviction that the stock should trade to our valuation"

All well and good ... but nothing really new. I had posted a lot on PLL earlier about supply demand and "incentive price". So I was really interested about what Sam had to say on the subject and the research they had done. So there is a "sector" price they come up with base odd 40 odd projects and their economics, which includes the project specific incentive price.

"Atlantic Lithium, the breakeven price is US$629/t, the incentive price US$820/t."
The primary driver of the low IP of US$820/t is the low Capex and Opex ... because IP takes into account that you need that price to be able to pay back the capital!!! (i.e. earn a return for the equity partners that built the project)

"Liontown, the breakeven price US$743 and the incentive price US$1,300 – right? So the price is not at the incentive price today and they have a funding gap. This is one of those projects that shouldn't get funded, so they shouldn't be in production in the middle of the year."
That's a bit of an "epiphany" moment right ... look at how much higher their IP is ... predominantly due to high Capex ... and arguably the Lending Syndicate is right ... it should not be funded into production as SC price is well below IP at the moment ... or take the risk that the SC price does a U-turn. Not good news for shareholdes (i.e. me).

"Core at Finniss breakeven is just shy of $1,100/t, but what I'd say is, I wouldn't call that a high conviction number ..."
Sam didn't put out the IP for Core. Now with Core being in ramp up the breakeven price is reflective of what's actually occurring as opposed to the theoretical of the economic studies from Atlantic and Liontown.

Something to keep and eye out for ... but Wilson's numbers look good for Atlantic.