1929 crash great dep vs 2008 gfc myths busted

well...

was ummming and arrrhing as to post
such a detailed analysis of the
two events technically as there will
many 'non believers'and 'hecklers' but
consider it your lucky day and will
take any constructive criticism on the
chin... :^)

as to the endless 'experts' opinions and
hot debate on the two events being one
or the same i thought it a good idea to do
a sort of 'jamie and adam' style experiment
and expose the truths, wild exaggerations,
and plain miss truths...

i will endeavor to be as objective as
possible with the charts presented but
from time to time will give hopefully an
'educated' opinion...

the prominent technical indicators used
will be 'hurst' cycles and pattern
recognition and u will be able to make up
yur own minds as to the validity of these methods...

if u are offended by this then its the
old cliche 'if u dont want to know the
score look away now'...



first chart: (1929 major influencing cycle)

you can see how much DJIA ramped up in this
9yr cycle.. a multiple of '6 times' since
it nested a low in the beginning of the cycle..

it also phased in a late cycle peak of the 9yr
halfway thru the second 54m cycle and took
the two remaining 18m cycles to nest in a low,the
percentage difference of the two lows from the
start of the 9yr cycle to the end is around
37.5%...





second chart: (2008 major influencing cycle)

if we apply the same 9yr cycle methodology we
can see a late cycle peak similar to 1929, halfway
thru the second 54m cycle...

now the magnitude of the rise is nowhere near as rapid
as 1929 being only a 'twice' multiple and a 10.2%
difference between the two 9yr cycle lows, its
interesting to note that both nested lows from
the completion of the 9yr cycles on both time lines
were lower since when the cycle started...





third chart: (1929 Elliot wave corrective patterns)

in my humble opinion EWT tends to work better
'after the fact' and we can see that here with
a corrective A B C flat pattern incorporating
with it an inverted impulse 5 wave formation..

after running some computer modelling on the
1929 data is it possible to have both patterns
forming at the same time...

interesting to note that the EW patterns tend
to be most accurate when they are recognised in
the corrective part of the major cycle and that
any major trend change had to form either a
bullish or bearish chart pattern, in this
case a Heads & shoulders /inverted H & S
formation...





fourth chart: (2008 Elliot wave corrective patterns)

now i warn this part of the analysis is highly
'subjective' but i have done a 'what if' comparison..

meaning can we fit the exact patterns that
occurred in 1929 into what has transpired over
the last 18 months or so...

nothings looks out of place or 'funny' or 'doesn't
look right' etc... same H & S pattern occurring
towards the end of the major cycle with EW corrective
patterns playing out, but EW experts will find
flaws with a 'best fit' argument based on historical
data and what i have proposed isnt it...

but thats ok as i am open to new ideas and correction....





fifth chart: (1929 recovery cycles and patterns)

the two 9yr cycles pro-ceeding 'the great crash'
cycle show similar patterns in there first two 18m
cycles, an upward move followed by a period of consolidation...

its interesting to note the peak of these
9yr cycles occurred around halfway thru, a slight
change to what had previously occurred and these
cycles where slightly shorter in 'real actual time'
to play out...





sixth chart: (current recovery cycles and patterns)

if we compare the last to recent 9yr cycles, the
first two 'recovery' 18m cycles show a move to
the upside followed by some sort of consolidation
period...

no where can i see (this chart and previous) a
dramatic move down testing lows or going lower than
seen at the start of the 9yr cycles...





seventh chart: (1929 and what 'might' happen today)

now again this part is highly 'subjective' as we
try to fit a historical EW pattern into a future
scenario...

now, the 1929 corrective pattern is being used
as a pre-cursor to predict a replica situation
present, its interesting that the magnitude now
predicted is far greater than what happened in 1929....

the 'V' pattern being loosely interpreted as the
same situation has some major differences:

* 1929 'v' pattern was alot shorter in time than
present (around 5mths as opposed to 10mths at present)

* what took two 18m cycles in a 9yr cyle in 1929,
will now have to take at least two 9yr cyles to grind
out the Inverted impulse pattern meaning this
will be 'unprecedented', nowhere in any historical
data can we find this magnitude of a correction

* the belief amongst some EW theorists that the
devastating 'c' leg will play out quickly (there
might be sharp sell offs followed by spikes) is a 'myth',
if we indeed do form the 'right shoulder' it will
take time due to the magnitude of the 'H & S' pattern
unfolding (meaning the time taken and size are
directly proportional)

* any major trend change will have to be preceded
by a confirming chart pattern...we dont just
simply drop and accelerate indefinately without
a reason (unless we have a major 'left field' event)





eighth chart: (crystal ball gazing and final analysis)

to say that the current 54m and the next two 18m
cycles are critical is an understatement....

to create history i believe the major chart pattern
forming on DJIA will have be confirmed in the next
3 years...

to avoid creating history we need to be higher than
the possible 'left shoulder' in the next 3 years...

early bearish signs could be a repeat of the mini
H & S pattern repeating and the obvious trendline,
support/resistance, neckline breaches...