was ummming and arrrhing as to post such a detailed analysis of the two events technically as there will many 'non believers'and 'hecklers' but consider it your lucky day and will take any constructive criticism on the chin... :^)
as to the endless 'experts' opinions and hot debate on the two events being one or the same i thought it a good idea to do a sort of 'jamie and adam' style experiment and expose the truths, wild exaggerations, and plain miss truths...
i will endeavor to be as objective as possible with the charts presented but from time to time will give hopefully an 'educated' opinion...
the prominent technical indicators used will be 'hurst' cycles and pattern recognition and u will be able to make up yur own minds as to the validity of these methods...
if u are offended by this then its the old cliche 'if u dont want to know the score look away now'...
first chart: (1929 major influencing cycle)
you can see how much DJIA ramped up in this 9yr cycle.. a multiple of '6 times' since it nested a low in the beginning of the cycle..
it also phased in a late cycle peak of the 9yr halfway thru the second 54m cycle and took the two remaining 18m cycles to nest in a low,the percentage difference of the two lows from the start of the 9yr cycle to the end is around 37.5%...
second chart: (2008 major influencing cycle)
if we apply the same 9yr cycle methodology we can see a late cycle peak similar to 1929, halfway thru the second 54m cycle...
now the magnitude of the rise is nowhere near as rapid as 1929 being only a 'twice' multiple and a 10.2% difference between the two 9yr cycle lows, its interesting to note that both nested lows from the completion of the 9yr cycles on both time lines were lower since when the cycle started...
third chart: (1929 Elliot wave corrective patterns)
in my humble opinion EWT tends to work better 'after the fact' and we can see that here with a corrective A B C flat pattern incorporating with it an inverted impulse 5 wave formation..
after running some computer modelling on the 1929 data is it possible to have both patterns forming at the same time...
interesting to note that the EW patterns tend to be most accurate when they are recognised in the corrective part of the major cycle and that any major trend change had to form either a bullish or bearish chart pattern, in this case a Heads & shoulders /inverted H & S formation...
now i warn this part of the analysis is highly 'subjective' but i have done a 'what if' comparison..
meaning can we fit the exact patterns that occurred in 1929 into what has transpired over the last 18 months or so...
nothings looks out of place or 'funny' or 'doesn't look right' etc... same H & S pattern occurring towards the end of the major cycle with EW corrective patterns playing out, but EW experts will find flaws with a 'best fit' argument based on historical data and what i have proposed isnt it...
but thats ok as i am open to new ideas and correction....
fifth chart: (1929 recovery cycles and patterns)
the two 9yr cycles pro-ceeding 'the great crash' cycle show similar patterns in there first two 18m cycles, an upward move followed by a period of consolidation...
its interesting to note the peak of these 9yr cycles occurred around halfway thru, a slight change to what had previously occurred and these cycles where slightly shorter in 'real actual time' to play out...
sixth chart: (current recovery cycles and patterns)
if we compare the last to recent 9yr cycles, the first two 'recovery' 18m cycles show a move to the upside followed by some sort of consolidation period...
no where can i see (this chart and previous) a dramatic move down testing lows or going lower than seen at the start of the 9yr cycles...
seventh chart: (1929 and what 'might' happen today)
now again this part is highly 'subjective' as we try to fit a historical EW pattern into a future scenario...
now, the 1929 corrective pattern is being used as a pre-cursor to predict a replica situation present, its interesting that the magnitude now predicted is far greater than what happened in 1929....
the 'V' pattern being loosely interpreted as the same situation has some major differences:
* 1929 'v' pattern was alot shorter in time than present (around 5mths as opposed to 10mths at present)
* what took two 18m cycles in a 9yr cyle in 1929, will now have to take at least two 9yr cyles to grind out the Inverted impulse pattern meaning this will be 'unprecedented', nowhere in any historical data can we find this magnitude of a correction
* the belief amongst some EW theorists that the devastating 'c' leg will play out quickly (there might be sharp sell offs followed by spikes) is a 'myth', if we indeed do form the 'right shoulder' it will take time due to the magnitude of the 'H & S' pattern unfolding (meaning the time taken and size are directly proportional)
* any major trend change will have to be preceded by a confirming chart pattern...we dont just simply drop and accelerate indefinately without a reason (unless we have a major 'left field' event)
eighth chart: (crystal ball gazing and final analysis)
to say that the current 54m and the next two 18m cycles are critical is an understatement....
to create history i believe the major chart pattern forming on DJIA will have be confirmed in the next 3 years...
to avoid creating history we need to be higher than the possible 'left shoulder' in the next 3 years...
early bearish signs could be a repeat of the mini H & S pattern repeating and the obvious trendline, support/resistance, neckline breaches...
(20min delay)