$1b deal here were come, page-5

I don't want to be negative, but as much as I wish we could see a deal worth hundreds of millions this quarter, I wouldn't be getting my hopes up. Just to remind everyone, we're talking about novel therapeutics which have yet to even have finalised phase I trial protocols. Remember that the proportion of all new drugs entering phase I trials that ultimately gain market approval in the US is less than 10%. We aren't even at phase I yet!

Regardless, the funding timeline is interesting. Assuming costs shown in the September quarterly remain constant, we'd be potentially running out of cash in March. I say interesting, because of a couple of reasons - primarily one which was outlined in Bioshares edition 481 (link here):

"The HCV clinical trial has to pass several regulatory thresholds before it can commence. It must be cleared by the FDA's Recombinant DNA Advisory committee (RAC), which meets next on March 12-14, 2013. Submissions for this meeting must be made by January 15, 2013. The next meeting of the RAC is then in June, with submissions made by April. Benitec (Tacere) must also have its IND accepted by the FDA before it can commence its clinical trial."

i.e. if we don't acquire funding soon, we will be out of cash before we can even start the trials. One way or the other, I expect we'll be seeing an announcement shortly.

On the topic of pending announcements, you might notice in that passage above that submissions for the RAC meeting have to be made by Jan 15th - Tuesday next week. So, we might see an announcement tomorrow or Monday describing the phase I/IIa HCV trial... or an announcement some time in the next few weeks regarding our cash resources.

With everyone's comments regarding p28 of the Cappello presentation where it states "Strategy is to develop with partners", bear in mind that it goes on to state "After phase I/II (HCV, HBV)", so it would be odd for us to see an announcement about a partnership on those fronts until late this year.

Don't get me wrong, I think we're in an excellent position, and while I'm not expecting any announcements for hundreds of millions in funding I do suspect that the recent silence on these matters may be indicative of some form of agreement in the works. However, I would wager that any agreement at this point would be for much less than the insane numbers others seem to be throwing around here the past few days. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong, but suspect we're in a good position regardless.

Patience, folks. :)