weekend warblings

OK, how about some market stuff.

Lately it seems that the best course of action is to give you money to Jaolsa and go on holiday.

Her timing has been incredible not only on a daily basis but on an hourly basis where the US markets are concerned.

My time frames are much larger as a rule and this seems a pivotal time.

My expectation was that May would see quite a conflict in general thought over whether this was the top in the rally and a new leg down like 1930 or even 1974, or it was the last chance to go long for much greater upside. I think that discourse is happening.

I have to admit to seeing both scenarios and it is even possible both can happen.

The 3 major US cycles seem to be pointing up from here and should see gains into August next year, although IMO new highs are unlikely. Since that doesn't leave much room to move, that is a lot of flat or choppy trading or I am wrong.

But then I have the XJO 62 month cycle that has failed but once suggesting a major top here and similar to Sep 1987.

The only way I can reconcile both scenarios is to assume that commodities will fall, thus boosting US equities while depressing ours.

It is quite a while since US and Aussie equity markets diverged and maybe that is a case for "about time".

Whatever the outcome, I suspect the pattern will become evident very shortly.

Perhaps the various market actions of the last week is in fact already indicating some divergence.

I think no one would be surprised by oil dropping to 85 and gold to 770 and copper to 3.20. My time frame would be Oct/Nov. I would expect Shanghai/Shenzen to also mirror that decline.