NTC 0.00% $1.10 netcomm wireless limited

1H15 report, page-21

  1. 21 Posts.
    What gross margins are you seeing across most resellers trythree?

    Also your earlier post that states: "Well to get to a more reasonable valuation of 15 to 20 times earnings they'd need to generate a profit of abut $3-3.5 million and at 1% NPAT margin that's an extra $350 million in revenue!!"

    That is to put bluntly, just plain wrong - no idea how you got that or whether your maths is just terrible. They have historically averaged bit more than 30% gross margin while fixed costs in employee benefits and other expenses have been around $13-15mil pa. D&A and Finance Costs have been around $4.3mil pa. They actually only need about $72-$73mil to hit $3mil NPBT (I am using NPBT because unsure of NPAT due to the likely favourable tax treatments).

    They needed to increase FY15 revenues by about 12% to hit 3mil NPBT. Given the likely favourable tax treatments, NPAT will be around 3mil and that equates to about 23x PE.

    Admittedly, the half yearly is disappointing as the revenues only suggest a FY15 run rate of $61mil. However, the >$5.2mil EBITDA for FY15 is interesting because on a like for like basis (as that EBITDA forecast includes the increase of $1.6mil in staff investment), it suggests EBITDA of around $7mil. Less the $4.2mil in D&A and Finance costs, you get $2.8mil NPBT and probably around that NPAT as well.

    So there you go, there's pretty much the $3mil and 23x PE.

    Whether you believe management is, of course, a different story. Unless you would like to spell out your calculations, the numbers you have put down are completely wrong.
 
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