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1ST ASX Valuations, page-19

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BkrDzn

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09/04/20

23:46

Post #: 43983330
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Originally posted by Adm1: ↑

Hi everyone - hope everyone is staying safe at home or in their trees (@JayMarket).

Re-posting my current thoughts on valuations in this, more appropriate, thread and keen to hear others thoughts @T.E.P.@lordearl @stardestr0yer et al.

I'm applying a roughly 9 month horizon here (out to 2020 calendar year end) and consider that short term.

The table shows options for growth rates of 5%, 10%, 12%, 15% and 20% a quarter moving forward. The ARR multiple applied will of course substantially change the SP outcome. Prior to CV-19, strong SaaS businesses on the ASX traded towards 10x multiples. I'm not sure we'll see these multiples post CV-19 (at least in the immediate term) so have dialled these back and applied a more conservative starting point at 4x for 10% quarterly growth (just under 50% CAGR). Note, on Q2 4C cost estimates we won't see positive cash flow this year under less than 15% quarterly growth. But costs are likely to decrease in the short term under the current climate, which will help on this front.

*using current SOI of 424.6m units.

My target for Q3 results (due end of the month) is $5.5m arr (with some on-boarding and billing luck) - right on 12% growth for the quarter. If sustained, ARR will be on the cusp of $8m by January 2021 reporting. A SP perhaps pushing towards 10c.

Q4FY20 will bring challenges as the effects of people delaying their pet, optometry, dentistry appointments materialise. But this could be offset by increased psychology bookings and innovations with tele health appointments (a further announcement on the cards soon? Here's hoping). Q1FY21 may be a strong quarter as the curve is flattened and things start to return to a greater sense of "normal".

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What is the gross margin 1ST makes?

1ST Price at posting: 2.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 0.4¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $11.67M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	9837746	0.4¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.5¢	3609437	7

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
10	9837746	0.004
8	7631916	0.003
2	950000	0.002
3	1700000	0.001
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.005	3609437	7
0.006	500000	1
0.007	515000	2
0.008	700000	1
0.030	30730	1

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1ST ASX Valuations, page-19

Vmoto sales plummet -50% YoY as weak demand in Europe & China stifles EV scooter sales growth

Westgold sets its sights on top five producer status through merger with Karora

Collaboration in a green (steel) future the focus for Magnum and Saudi partners

Is oil undervalued?

Venture to sniff out high-grade REE targets at Jupiter project, WA

Cost blow-out for Rook I uranium project sees share plummet for NexGen

Commodity house Trafigura funds Develop Global's copper-zinc Woodlawn play with offtake deal in place

GreenX picks up prospective copper project in Germany

Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo

Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

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Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

1ST ASX Valuations, page-19

Top Stories

Vmoto sales plummet -50% YoY as weak demand in Europe & China stifles EV scooter sales growth

Westgold sets its sights on top five producer status through merger with Karora

Collaboration in a green (steel) future the focus for Magnum and Saudi partners

Is oil undervalued?

Venture to sniff out high-grade REE targets at Jupiter project, WA

Cost blow-out for Rook I uranium project sees share plummet for NexGen

Commodity house Trafigura funds Develop Global's copper-zinc Woodlawn play with offtake deal in place

GreenX picks up prospective copper project in Germany

Week 31 Wrap: JORC rules to get tougher; RBA rate hike chance 50/50; US Fed Sept cut still the quo

Uranium prices on the NYMEX are stable, but ASX uranium stocks are sinking on Friday. The answer lies in Kazakhstan

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News