Less than 2 months to go...
My estimates are approx 1.23m subs for the HY.
Calculations/assumptions below- share price assumptions will be similar unless a very very big miss (an absolute add less that 173K would be where I start questioning things- particularly in light of Intuit's amazing ongoing growth).
Am looking for in customer numbers:
- "rebasing" of US growth rates (I think earlier pcp number were artificially high due to overspend on sales and marketing),
- acceleration in rest of world (strongly suspect this),
- ? inflection point in UK due to making tax digital (ie a few years of 50+% growth),
- when will Aus/NZ finally run out of steam - must be close by surely now!
In accounts:
- true cashflow even (after capitalising R&D)
- divergence between revenue growth and sub growth to start emerging - I believe this will really kick off in 2019 and will be critical to maintain the momentum required for the type of share price growth I am looking for!
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 0 Year NZ % AUS % UK % US % ROW % TOTAL Net adds 1 Sep-11 30600 60% 10400 20% 7300 14% 2000 4% 1000 2% 51300 2 Mar-12 47000 60% 16000 21% 11000 14% 2500 3% 1500 2% 78000 26700 3 Sep-12 57300 51% 32500 29% 15100 14% 4000 4% 2900 3% 111800 33800 4 Mar-13 73000 46% 51000 32% 22000 14% 6000 4% 5000 3% 157000 45200 5 Sep-13 86000 41% 79000 38% 30000 14% 10000 5% 5000 2% 210000 53000 6 Mar-14 102000 36% 109000 38% 47000 17% 18000 6% 8000 3% 284000 74000 7 Sep-14 119000 32% 158000 43% 61000 16% 22000 6% 11000 3% 371000 87000 8 Mar-15 138000 29% 203000 43% 83000 17% 35000 7% 16000 3% 475000 104000 9 Sep-15 163000 27% 262000 44% 102000 17% 47000 8% 19000 3% 593000 118000 10 Mar-16 186000 26% 312000 44% 133000 19% 62000 9% 24000 3% 717000 124000 11 Sep-16 212000 25% 380000 44% 164000 19% 77000 9% 29000 3% 862000 145000 12 Mar-17 240000 23% 452000 44% 212000 20% 92000 9% 39000 4% 1035000 173000 13 Sep-17 278400 23% 542400 44% 256520 21% 107640 9% 48750 4% 1233710 198710
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 0 HOH Growth rates NZ AUS UK US ROW 1 Sep-11 2 Mar-12 54% 54% 51% 25% 50% 52% 3 Sep-12 22% 103% 37% 60% 93% 43% 4 Mar-13 27% 57% 46% 50% 72% 40% 5 Sep-13 18% 55% 36% 67% 0% 34% 6 Mar-14 19% 38% 57% 80% 60% 35% 7 Sep-14 17% 45% 30% 22% 38% 31% 8 Mar-15 16% 28% 36% 59% 45% 28% 9 Sep-15 18% 29% 23% 34% 19% 25% 10 Mar-16 14% 19% 30% 32% 26% 21% 11 Sep-16 14% 22% 23% 24% 21% 20% 12 Mar-17 13% 19% 29% 19% 34% 20% 13 Sep-17 16% 20% 21% 17% 25% 19%
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Less than 2 months to go... My estimates are approx 1.23m subs...
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Last
$143.23 |
Change
-1.440(1.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $21.86B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$143.74 | $144.89 | $142.83 | $57.50M | 400.5K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 2999 | $143.23 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$143.65 | 1151 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 243 | 143.000 |
1 | 200 | 142.250 |
4 | 310 | 142.000 |
1 | 100 | 141.500 |
1 | 35 | 140.690 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
143.700 | 50 | 1 |
143.800 | 5 | 1 |
144.100 | 183 | 1 |
145.000 | 481 | 5 |
145.200 | 247 | 1 |
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