XRO

0.86%

$148.21 xero limited

Thanks for sharing your estimates. So you 'suspect' an increase...

First 3 Last

timbin4

3,191 Posts.

841

26/09/17

15:52

Post #: 27467427

Originally posted by mal85 ↑

Less than 2 months to go...
My estimates are approx 1.23m subs for the HY.
Calculations/assumptions below- share price assumptions will be similar unless a very very big miss (an absolute add less that 173K would be where I start questioning things- particularly in light of Intuit's amazing ongoing growth).

Am looking for in customer numbers:
- "rebasing" of US growth rates (I think earlier pcp number were artificially high due to overspend on sales and marketing),
- acceleration in rest of world (strongly suspect this),
- ? inflection point in UK due to making tax digital (ie a few years of 50+% growth),
- when will Aus/NZ finally run out of steam - must be close by surely now!

In accounts:
- true cashflow even (after capitalising R&D)
- divergence between revenue growth and sub growth to start emerging - I believe this will really kick off in 2019 and will be critical to maintain the momentum required for the type of share price growth I am looking for!

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13

1 Year NZ % AUS % UK % US % ROW % TOTAL Net adds

2 Sep-11 30600 60% 10400 20% 7300 14% 2000 4% 1000 2% 51300

3 Mar-12 47000 60% 16000 21% 11000 14% 2500 3% 1500 2% 78000 26700

4 Sep-12 57300 51% 32500 29% 15100 14% 4000 4% 2900 3% 111800 33800

5 Mar-13 73000 46% 51000 32% 22000 14% 6000 4% 5000 3% 157000 45200

6 Sep-13 86000 41% 79000 38% 30000 14% 10000 5% 5000 2% 210000 53000

7 Mar-14 102000 36% 109000 38% 47000 17% 18000 6% 8000 3% 284000 74000

8 Sep-14 119000 32% 158000 43% 61000 16% 22000 6% 11000 3% 371000 87000

9 Mar-15 138000 29% 203000 43% 83000 17% 35000 7% 16000 3% 475000 104000

10 Sep-15 163000 27% 262000 44% 102000 17% 47000 8% 19000 3% 593000 118000

11 Mar-16 186000 26% 312000 44% 133000 19% 62000 9% 24000 3% 717000 124000

12 Sep-16 212000 25% 380000 44% 164000 19% 77000 9% 29000 3% 862000 145000

13 Mar-17 240000 23% 452000 44% 212000 20% 92000 9% 39000 4% 1035000 173000

14 Sep-17 278400 23% 542400 44% 256520 21% 107640 9% 48750 4% 1233710 198710

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12

1 HOH Growth rates NZ AUS UK US ROW

2 Sep-11

3 Mar-12 54% 54% 51% 25% 50% 52%

4 Sep-12 22% 103% 37% 60% 93% 43%

5 Mar-13 27% 57% 46% 50% 72% 40%

6 Sep-13 18% 55% 36% 67% 0% 34%

7 Mar-14 19% 38% 57% 80% 60% 35%

8 Sep-14 17% 45% 30% 22% 38% 31%

9 Mar-15 16% 28% 36% 59% 45% 28%

10 Sep-15 18% 29% 23% 34% 19% 25%

11 Mar-16 14% 19% 30% 32% 26% 21%

12 Sep-16 14% 22% 23% 24% 21% 20%

13 Mar-17 13% 19% 29% 19% 34% 20%

14 Sep-17 16% 20% 21% 17% 25% 19%

Expand

Thanks for sharing your estimates.
So you 'suspect' an increase in the ROW growth rate. Yet your Sep17 HOH estimate in that table for ROW drops from 34% (Mar17) to 25%? (Sep17).

I think the UK growth will pick up again and would be looking for this in the upcoming results. It would be a big shot in the arm if the US growth rate picked up too.

XRO Price at posting: $26.25 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Top Stories

What each US election outcome would mean for Australian companies & investors

Aussie inflation seemingly hit a 3 year low. So why's the ASX200 red?

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

Bitcoin hits fresh record as instos pile into BTC ETFs – and Trump helps, too

'We're looking': Nickel-rich Indonesia sounds graphite warning to Aus producers

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Making money: How many microcaps should be in an investor's portfolio?

Week 44 Wrap: Relatively boring week ahead of US election; HotCopper's most watched; Oz inflation at 3.5%

MIN

Movers and Shakers: Zip Co, MinRes, Kuniko, more – The week's top ASX gainers

The Altcoin Landscape (Part 1): Key alternative cryptocurrencies to watch

There are more pages in this discussion • 17 more messages in this thread...

First 3 Last

Add XRO (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $148.21		Change -1.290(0.86%)		Mkt cap ! $22.63B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$147.73	$148.82	$145.93	$47.92M	324.9K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	60	$147.91

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$148.21	1241	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	460	146.500
1	20	146.250
1	20	146.010
2	501	146.000
1	50	145.900

Price($)	Vol.	No.
149.000	25	1
150.000	205	2
150.500	635	1
151.000	502	2
151.200	150	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 01/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

XRO (ASX) Chart

Thanks for sharing your estimates. So you 'suspect' an increase...

What each US election outcome would mean for Australian companies & investors

Aussie inflation seemingly hit a 3 year low. So why's the ASX200 red?

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

Bitcoin hits fresh record as instos pile into BTC ETFs – and Trump helps, too

'We're looking': Nickel-rich Indonesia sounds graphite warning to Aus producers

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Making money: How many microcaps should be in an investor's portfolio?

Week 44 Wrap: Relatively boring week ahead of US election; HotCopper's most watched; Oz inflation at 3.5%

Movers and Shakers: Zip Co, MinRes, Kuniko, more – The week's top ASX gainers

The Altcoin Landscape (Part 1): Key alternative cryptocurrencies to watch

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11	Column 12	Column 13
1	Year	NZ	%	AUS	%	UK	%	US	%	ROW	%	TOTAL	Net adds
2	Sep-11	30600	60%	10400	20%	7300	14%	2000	4%	1000	2%	51300
3	Mar-12	47000	60%	16000	21%	11000	14%	2500	3%	1500	2%	78000	26700
4	Sep-12	57300	51%	32500	29%	15100	14%	4000	4%	2900	3%	111800	33800
5	Mar-13	73000	46%	51000	32%	22000	14%	6000	4%	5000	3%	157000	45200
6	Sep-13	86000	41%	79000	38%	30000	14%	10000	5%	5000	2%	210000	53000
7	Mar-14	102000	36%	109000	38%	47000	17%	18000	6%	8000	3%	284000	74000
8	Sep-14	119000	32%	158000	43%	61000	16%	22000	6%	11000	3%	371000	87000
9	Mar-15	138000	29%	203000	43%	83000	17%	35000	7%	16000	3%	475000	104000
10	Sep-15	163000	27%	262000	44%	102000	17%	47000	8%	19000	3%	593000	118000
11	Mar-16	186000	26%	312000	44%	133000	19%	62000	9%	24000	3%	717000	124000
12	Sep-16	212000	25%	380000	44%	164000	19%	77000	9%	29000	3%	862000	145000
13	Mar-17	240000	23%	452000	44%	212000	20%	92000	9%	39000	4%	1035000	173000
14	Sep-17	278400	23%	542400	44%	256520	21%	107640	9%	48750	4%	1233710	198710

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 4	Column 6	Column 8	Column 10	Column 12
1	HOH Growth rates	NZ	AUS	UK	US	ROW
2	Sep-11
3	Mar-12	54%	54%	51%	25%	50%	52%
4	Sep-12	22%	103%	37%	60%	93%	43%
5	Mar-13	27%	57%	46%	50%	72%	40%
6	Sep-13	18%	55%	36%	67%	0%	34%
7	Mar-14	19%	38%	57%	80%	60%	35%
8	Sep-14	17%	45%	30%	22%	38%	31%
9	Mar-15	16%	28%	36%	59%	45%	28%
10	Sep-15	18%	29%	23%	34%	19%	25%
11	Mar-16	14%	19%	30%	32%	26%	21%
12	Sep-16	14%	22%	23%	24%	21%	20%
13	Mar-17	13%	19%	29%	19%	34%	20%
14	Sep-17	16%	20%	21%	17%	25%	19%

Thanks for sharing your estimates. So you 'suspect' an increase...

Top Stories

What each US election outcome would mean for Australian companies & investors

Aussie inflation seemingly hit a 3 year low. So why's the ASX200 red?

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

Bitcoin hits fresh record as instos pile into BTC ETFs – and Trump helps, too

'We're looking': Nickel-rich Indonesia sounds graphite warning to Aus producers

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Making money: How many microcaps should be in an investor's portfolio?

Week 44 Wrap: Relatively boring week ahead of US election; HotCopper's most watched; Oz inflation at 3.5%

Movers and Shakers: Zip Co, MinRes, Kuniko, more – The week's top ASX gainers

The Altcoin Landscape (Part 1): Key alternative cryptocurrencies to watch

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News