1stDecember 2023
Friday
Canada is scheduled to release its Employment Change andUnemployment Rate data on Friday, December 1, 2023, coinciding with the UnitedStates' unveiling of its ISM Manufacturing PMI figures.
CAD –Employment Change
Job creation, a key leading indicator, plays a crucial role in driving consumer spending, which forms a substantial part of overall economic activity.
In October 2023, Canada witnessed a notable increase in employment, with a gain of 17.5 thousand jobs. This data, which reflects the latest employment change, aligns with historical trends in Canada's labor market. Over the years, the country has experienced an average monthly employment change of 18.59 thousand jobs since 1976. Notably, the employment figures reached an unprecedented high of 1,035.8 thousand in June 2020, while the lowest point was recorded at -1,991.4 thousand in April 2020, marking a significant downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The forecast for the Canadian Employment Change is reading a decrease to 15.0 thousand.
The upcoming Employment Changedata is scheduled for release on Friday, December 1, 2023, at 1:30 PMGMT.
The last time, the CanadianEmployment Change was announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (AUDCAD M5) below:
CAD –Unemployment Rate
Although often viewed as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is a critical measure of a country's economic health. This significance stems from the close relationship between consumer spending and labor market conditions, with changes in unemployment levels having a profound impact on consumer behavior and the overall economic state.
In October 2023, Canada's unemployment rate climbed to 5.7%, up from the previous month's 5.5%. This represents the highest level since January 2022 and surpasses market projections of 5.6%. The increase aligns with the Bank of Canada's cautionary note about the effects of its assertive interest rate hikes on the Canadian economy, leading to a slowdown and subsequently softer labor market conditions.
The latest forecast projects a marginal uptick in the unemployment rate, anticipated to rise from 5.7% to 5.8%, reflecting a small yet notable change in the labor market dynamics.
The next Unemployment Rate is set to be released on Friday 1st of December 2023 at 1:30 PMGMT.
The last time, the Canadian Unemployment Ratewas announced on the 3rd of November, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (AUDCAD M5) below:USD – Fed ChairPowell Speech
In the U.S., interest rate decisions are split between the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board sets discount rates based on recommendations from regional Federal Reserve Banks, while the FOMC handles open market operations, determining the amount of central bank money or the target federal funds market rate.
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at its 22-year peak of 5.25%-5.5% for the second time in November. This decision reflects the Fed's aim to bring inflation back to the 2% target while avoiding overly aggressive monetary tightening. Policymakers are weighing the cumulative effects of past rate hikes, the delayed impact of monetary policy on the economy and inflation, and current economic and financial market conditions. In a press conference, Powell indicated that the September dot-plot, which predicted another rate hike in 2022, might no longer be valid. He mentioned that rate cuts have not been discussed yet, focusing instead on the possibility of further rate increases.
Fed Chair Powell is going to speak on the 1st of December, 2023 at 04:00 PM GMT.
The last time, Powell spoke on the 9thof November, 2023. You may find the market reaction graph (USDJPY M5) below:USD - ISMManufacturing PMI
As a vital indicator of economic health, businesses quickly react to market changes, and their purchasing managers hold the latest and most relevant insights into the company's economic prospects.
In October 2023, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States dipped to 46.7, falling from the previous month's ten-month high of 49 and notably below the anticipated reading of 49. This marks the eleventh consecutive contraction in the country's manufacturing sector. The data highlights the sector's vulnerability to the Federal Reserve's increased borrowing costs, indicating a potential decline in resilience among U.S. goods producers.
The upcoming forecast for the ISMManufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows a slight decrease, moving from 46.7 to 46.5, indicating a subtle shift in manufacturing sector activity.
The upcoming release of the ISMManufacturing PMI is set for December 1, 2023, at 3:00 PM GMT.
The last time, the US ISM Manufacturing PMIwas announced on the 1st of November, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (GBPUSD M5) below:
