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6.5¢ beadell resources limited

Binwood, I appreciate your response and your detailed analysis...

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ww2zombie

485 Posts.

28/03/16

21:42

Post #: 17369649
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Originally posted by binwood ↑

Chiangrai, I don't know TA that well so will just assume your support levels are correct. From looking at the 15 min chart one candle breached 1211 and bounced off exactly 1210 and another bounced off exactly 1211, to now be trading at 1215ish. Does that not mean the support level has held?...at least for now.

Zombie judging from the personality you portray you will take this as abuse but if you take it that way and choose to dislike me that is fine. Firstly and primarily, if a holding is causing you to lose sleep at night for the love of god (and the well-being of yourself and those close to you) sell your holding. If you are indeed sleeping at night well we go full circle back to your hyperbolic statements which I find questionable.

Secondly to discuss the content of your post which no one else has done because frankly it is probably a waste of our times but anyway. Did you even read the BDR full year report or did you just read the sensationalist headline written by a WA newspaper? Yes that figure of 44m is correct, but what it entails is more important. If you take out D&A (29.5) and impairment charges (16.8) the net figure moves from 44m negative to 2m positive. Moving further along that figure of minus 44m also contained 30.5m of finance costs. Bearing in mind the majority of this was capital repayment, and as such was improving the companies position not just a negative cash drain.

Now further to this BDR produced 122k ounces last year a an AISC of AUD 1,139 and had an average sale price of AUD 1,568. Guidance for this year is 145m at the bottom end and USD 800 ASIC at the top end. This correlates to 145m produced at AUD 1,142 (with an fx of 0.70 - I see it lower than where we are now). Now lets say in a bear case scenario POG averages 1,100 USD for the year (bearing in mind Q1 is essentially finished at an average of 1,200 means Q2-4 could average 1,067 to give me my 1,100). Keeping the same fx this gives an AUD POG of 1,571. Low and behold we have the same margins as last year but we are producing 23k more ounces as a minimum (I am willing to bet if new management miss a full year guidance even the most staunch BDR supporters would even give up). This gives an extra 7.5m AUD. Now things to keep in mind even at this rate without the 50m we just raised BDR would be debt free in 18 months. Which adds 30m a year to cashflow (D&A and impairments are non cashlfow items which is why I highlighted their significance higher up).

But to be fair I and most other people holding would say that is quite a bearish case. For every 10 USD higher POG we average above 1,100 over the year BDR makes an extra 2.07m. You can do you own maths for where that could lead us. In addition to this you have value to be added from exploration, we have cash on hand to give flexibility to debt repayments in the event the bear case does play out and if not we have money to fund some of the urucum capital costs. You keep banging on about at least 3 years away and uneconomically viable. Have you seen the PFS the rest of us are waiting on or are you just doing what you say the rest of us are doing and spraying unsubstantiated sheet?

This is the second time I have responded to you with real facts and figures. The last one you accused me of abuse, I have given a genuine response to your queries here and outlined some of the reasons I believe BDR has a future and we aren't doomed. Balls in your court, make a real contribution or go on ignore.

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Binwood,
I appreciate your response and your detailed analysis .Its a pity more people don't do the same.Regarding my"banging on" and"spraying" about Urucum at least three years away etc,I was told that by a reliable source.The information was given with deep scepticism.The PFS will not answer these concerns.Only time will tell.
I certainly don't have your capacity to evaluate the figures but I do believe that with any share,an attitude of cynicism does not go astray.You may hate me for banging on yet again about BDR being only a"good story",but its healthier than falling in love with it.BTW,I cannot be a "ramper"if only because I have a large holding in BDR.I was holding 7 years ago when it went to 6 cents and later at the first CR when it was 15 cents.I hope and pray that you are right.

BDR Price at posting: 26.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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