Yes but in the rest of GS commentary:"Capital release from...

Yes but in the rest of GS commentary:

"Capital release from contract loss likely distributable
Our discussion with the company today has left us confident that, to
the extent it was to lose the CBA contract, it should be able to
distribute the resulting capital release. This is fairly different to the
run-off scenario we previously ran (here), which came up with a
A$1.58 valuation and which assumed the regulator would not allow
any capital release until after the book has entirely run-down"

"Relatively small valuation impact
For a balance sheet intensive financial, which we estimate writes
incremental policies only slightly above its cost of capital, GMA’s
value overwhelmingly rests in its balance sheet (as opposed to in
the value of future earnings). Therefore, to the extent that GMA was
to lose the CBA contract, we expect the valuation impact would be
relatively small. To this end, our DDM scenario analysis suggests
that the valuation impact of the CBA contract loss would be
between 5-20% (range reflects extent to which distributions can be
franked in the event the CBA contract is lost). Coupled with the fact
we already saw the stock as cheap before today’s announcement
and given today’s share price reaction (-16%), we stay Buy with an
unchanged A$3.25 TP'

I bought a relatively small position today after reviewing the GS broker report and using the market to detect risk (ie GMA share price did not drop again significantly today).

My main hypothesis is that GMA is trading significantly under NTA. If it looses the contract because of the share price to NTA, risk is reduced.

We will see how this plays out.