Andy, the temptation with this sort of Analysis is to make...

  1. 1,996 Posts.
    Andy, the temptation with this sort of Analysis is to make exceptions of these sorts of transactions - but trading is trading and we are trying to spot (not exclude/ignore) unusual activity (in the volume) and see what price did on that volume.
    If the volume drops right off and price stays in the range of that big down bar and starts making higher lows and higher highs that would be good - but my first thoughts if I looked at the last couple days, particularly the weekly, is that higher prices are going to be a ways off - I would be very wary of any rise on low volume, I would prefer to see price go down on low volume and stay in the range of that big bar.
    Or better yet, best case scenario, price goes up on good volume then retests into that bar on very low volume.
    But now you have locked in buyers higher up that may just want out for a small loss or break even if they get the chance - so my real best case scenario is sideways for a spell - and the pessimist in me would expect lower prices from here.
    We won't really know until we see how price goes over the next week or so, its not that straight forward from a volume point of view. I do short trades primarily (I buy to invest and short to trade) and it doesn't really qualify as a good short either.
 
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