I think;
- About $50m-$100m underlying profit for the second half of 2020 and possibly a net loss for this half
- Class actions will be strung along for years by AMP and AMP will settle them on the steps of the courthouse before they have to be aired publically
- The breakup and sale process will probably stall because there are no serious bidders for anything other than AMP Capital
- If the breakup stalls then the "rebuilding" strategy will probably continue at a glacial pace
- Profit will continue to slide and should bottom out at around $150-$200m underlying profit after which they might start to regrow
- I cannot see new clients entering AMP too willingly so I wouldn't be surprised to see some rebranding of the various divisions
- ASIC will probs keep putting pressure on AMP whilst not proceeding to full criminal or civil action (if they haven't done it by now they probably never will
- Advisers and clients will keep running for the door
- The business does have upside potential but for whatever reasons AMP board and management dont seem to be leveraging that.
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