This quarterly doesn't actually matter that much. The next one does, as this is the highest incidence flu in recent memory. Question is, does DS have the manufacturing capability to meet demand. They had a little time with the spike in US, however I doubt they had time to double production or anything like that.
I've done some back of the envelope calculations on demand from baseline.
If the 2.1b is directly related to the increase in national incidence above baseline, then sales in January alone should be 16bn, and full quarter could be up to 35bn (or around $15m to biota). This would be a very nice number for analysts i.e. quarterly royalty from JUST seasonal flu in JUST one country. No stockpiling. No rest of world seasonal market.
Given DS have only increased sales estimate to 11bn, they may have some production constraints.
Is there another milestone payment due?
Yes, the next quarterly should see some action. I hope Biota continue to inform the market of royalties.
BTA Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
