If this is what is being written about Woodside (>$34.00) .... then methinks $3.50 plus atm is what HDR is worth.
"Woodside Petroleum’s (WPL) attractiveness as a long term investment option received a firm boost this week due to a company update by the oil and gas experts at Smith Barney Citigroup.
Until recently, the broker valued the shares of Australia’s leading oil explorer and producer at $19.80
a piece. Taking into account the upside from the upcoming drilling program offshore Mauritania, the
broker’s value rose to $21.03.
However, these calculations are based on the broker’s long term WTI spot oil price forecast of US$24 per barrel. Using the current consensus long-term price of US$27.8/bbl would produce a value of $26.05/share. As standard the broker applies a 5% discount to valuation for the company, which would take the target price to $24.75 – still at a 17.5% premium to the current valuation of $21.03.
If the broker were to adopt the current 2004 average price for WTI of US$37.65/bbl as the basis for the calculation (and leave the value of the gas reserves unchanged) the valuation would increase to $34.25 while the target price would rise to $32.50, implying a 54% premium.
Acknowledging that oil is likely to remain higher priced than previously anticipated in the foreseeable future, the analysts have chosen to seek the middle ground, adopting a target price that incorporates a 12.5% premium to their base case valuation. This has resulted in a revised target of $23.65.
Deutsche Bank too thinks the shares should be trading past $20 relatively soon, unless unforeseen circumstances such as renewed political instability in Mauritania play a part."
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If this is what is being written about Woodside (>$34.00) .......
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