Haka - I think you're right. There is a lot of money on the...

Haka - I think you're right. There is a lot of money on the sidelines. Mostly based on a management fee running on committed capital and therefore an inherent pressure to spend sooner rather than later. I suspect this will provide a floor. There will be become a point that even in a low LTV scenario, you can make the numbers stack up by assuming a higher LTV refi at a later date.

I am running a book in our London office as to when the UK turnaround will be (defined by the first of two >+0.50% UK All Property IPD Index monthly results). Interestingly, two of the better analysts have gone for dates at the back end of 2011. This is disturbing. Clearly they have been spending all of their boom time bonuses on some nasty recreational drugs.

You can show me all the econometric models you like, but if you study the basic data, the last three UK property crashes have all been strikingly similar in duration (between 2.5 and 3 years). People may say that 'this time is different', but as Sir John Templeton once said, those four words are the most expensive in the English language.

If we can use this previous experience as a guide, then the UK market's three years are up in June of 2010. The worst I think is certainly behind us and following further noticeable deterioration in the June round of valuations based on a worsening occupational outlook, we will be in for 12 months of a flattening process. That would be my best guess. But who knows.