$2.95 at open, page-40

Here's my simple but arguably effective valuation $13.56.  I'm not saying it will race to that figure but based on what we know today it is reasonable to assume it could track up towards that figure over the next couple of years.

The exciting thing is it is based on just moderate growth and really just delivering on current promise.  An additional growth opportunity in years to come could catapult it to another level.

Assumptions:

* The business is tracking well as per guidance
* Just moderate growth 15% then 10% then steady state 5%
* Discount rate 11% for this year and next (reflecting risk) then 9% reflecting CAPM
* Payout ratio 20% then rising to 75% as consolidate the business
* Retain 25% thereafter to maintain working capital and support 5% growth in perpetuity
* Debt cleared by 2018
* No material acquisitions

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
1	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	Terminal
2	NPAT	198	228	250	263	5% growth
3	Growth		15%	10%	5%	Discount 9%
4	SOI	352	354	356	357
5	Payout	20%	25%	30%	75%
6	Div	40	57	75	197
7	Div per share	0.11	0.16	0.21	0.55
8	Discount factor	0.90	0.81	0.77	0.71	0.65
9	NPV	0.10	0.13	0.16	0.39
10					0.79	12.77
11
12	Debt	471.60	186.98	Nil	Value per share	$13.56