Let me preface this post by stating that I do not believe that...

Let me preface this post by stating that I do not believe that JPR will have a cap raise anywhere near these levels. It is a 45% discount to already bargain basement levels and there is more good news to come (IMHO). I write this post merely as a hypothetical.

Current situation
~886 shares
~70M options (far out of the money and not considered for the purposes of this post)
~Market Cap=$31.9M
Estimated cash as of 30/6/10 = $2.9M
P2 Reserves=8.6mmbo
EV/2P=$4/bbl

A brief correlation with GO's figures on current cash
From his post 24/6/10. #5470182

"here are some calcs I did on the 'cash burning' thread a couple weeks ago. Hope they help. DYOR


Cash at 3/31 $1.8m

Current Quarter
Admin $0.5m
Expl Exp $3.0m
Birsca USD820k $1.0m
Cash via CR ($4.6m)
Net Current Quarter ($0.1m)

Balance as at 6/30 ($1.9m)

Q3 Capital Requirements
Cost of NWZ2 Testing $1.0m?
Cost of J51 Well $6.0m (similar to J50)
Admin $0.5m
Total $7.5m

CR Required circa $6.0m (say 300m shares @ 2c?)

Any cash generated from local sales would create a slight buffer going forward imo.

Happy to have these numbers critiqued by genuine posters."

The announcement on 18/5/10 described the payment of the Birsca debt in shares and a small cash payment. I have therefore used a cash balance of $2.9M as opposed to GO's $1.9M.

$5 million raised via 2c Cap Raise
Given the higher cash balance I will assume they only wish to raise $5 million. They could probably raise less given oil sales but its good to be well funded for cost blow outs, etc.

New shares 250 Million (28% of current register)
Total shares post Cap raise: 1,136 Million

An interesting observation at this stage is that they will need more than a 15% placement at 2c to get close - share holders may be asked to put their hands in their pockets too. However if they can get a placement away at 3.7c on the back of good news they can just get over the line. Interesting that this is where the SP is hovering......

Assumed End of 2010 Position
Cash in bank minimal
J-50, J-51, NWZ-2 drilled
Production 1000+ BOPD

Now given that current EV/2P is $4, with 1000+ BOPD and 3 wells drilled, I think it would be reasonable that EV/2P be at least $5. This would equate to a SP of 3.8c.

However, if NWZ-2 does produce well (expected to be 350+ BOPD), then the Jurassic XIII resource gets proven up (20.2MMBO). Big implications on the 2P reserve estimate and the EV/P2 ratio when evaluating it against its peers.

My conclusions
1) Its possible that GO may get his lower entry price (though I seriously doubt it will be 2c).
2) Good news on J-50 and/or NWZ-2 could just as easily mean that the cap raise happens around current levels.
3) Reasonable chance that holders will be offered shares - have your powder ready after August 9th. I think this is the most important point for current holders
4) Even if GO is correct (2c placement), its unlikely that holders will have any great concerns as long as their investment time frame is 6 months +. I see a low downside risk if this if your investment time frame.
5) Reasonable expectation of decent gains on the back of:
- flows well in excess of 1000 BOPD (my prediction)
- the Jurassic XIII resource gets proven up