$2 Club, page-40

Generally in agreement here. We've shared/compared these similar numbers in the past -- albeit (from my end) coming from a slightly different set of assumptions.

My $240m pa FCF is based on $405m revenue (i.e. 15,000t payable Ni in conc. x (current) AU$27,00/t spot). The reason my estimate isn't ~$500m revenue is because of the effect of applying a materially higher margin rate for the lower tonnage (6,000t) output of the high-grade circuit ~75% v. 50% for the larger low-grade circuit (i.e. not 50% across the board).

Also, just an FYI, as I understand it (and tends to be confirmed by the engineering CAD drawing in the announcement) I don't think there is a 3rd BS conc. circuit. Might be slightly off on that. The SAG mill and Ball mill sit beside each other (clearly seen in photo). Pretty sure they sit on the same circuit, so by only bringing the SAG online at this juncture the 2Mtpa nameplate ends up being de-rated to ~1.1Mtpa. Bring the Ball mill online and almost double the milling capacity an subsequent throughput on that larger circuit. Just thought I'd clarify my understanding of the layout.

Agreed that there would still be much inherent processing capacity across our two concentrators. The key is getting/keeping them fed. Tuesday's announcement was a great step towards getting greater clarity on the likely chosen production pathway. PH and the boys couldn't commit until the independent engineering study had been completed/signed-off. Technically speaking he hasn't yet committed, but at this juncture the updated indication he has provided (I think) carries much greater weight than earlier open mulling of options (read: DSO of high-grade) prior to the relevant study being done.

Although PH has been careful to not express too much of an opinion on the Windarra-to-BS trucking option (more near-term study work required), I think he's very much heading down that path. Will he commit at the same time as the FID for the lower volume high-grade circuit? Jury is still out, but it's looking that way.

The four bullet points around the intended purpose of the funds doesn't mention any meaningful work on the plant. No surprises there prior to finalisation of all the required studies and final FID. Put another way, FID exists for a reason. There might be some minor advance works that the Board sign-off on being done prior to FID, but I doubt they'll sanction a full-blown restart (not even by stealth) without formal FID sign-off at Board level. PH has been clear on the timeline here, which remains on-track for to happen in few months' time, once the other required back-office work has been done.

For those who are wondering how this CR is anywhere near enough to perform all the required restart works, my view is it isn't. That's not the purpose of this CR. Read the bullet points posted already on these threads today relating to the stated purpose for the funds, which will presumably be included in the announcement that coincides with lifting of the TH. I think the final restart funding package (debt/pre-sale, or a combo of both) will be (is being) developed, to be held in readiness for execution immediately after FID and Board sign-off later this year.

I think we're going to see details emerge quite soon of a material expansion of the ST drilling program (no surprises) and also specifics surrounding the SS Resource-to-Reserve upgrade drilling program. All highly probable value-adds. Hopefully Webdrill maintains its on-site presence and they simply roll-over to a new contract. Would make sense. Can't imagine this wasn't part of the larger plan.

I think there's little doubt we've entering the zone now. The various de-risking dominos are falling, one by one, at a perceptible increasing rate. Still more work to be done and still implementation risks, but hey, what do we care if there are some unexpected cost overruns (there will be, imo). With envisaged ramped-up production FCF like that one could hardly suggest that the ops would be marginal.