$2 is no far , page-27

Hi sadeed

lory might give you a more useful reply, but for what it is worth here are my thoughts.

From purely a chart point of view, now is a time to enter the stock. My daily chart [on the thread 'lnc sp momentum'] is showing reasonably positive momentum and if you look at the weekly chart I posted just underneath the daily you will notice a tail has formed which is a good indicator for support. [that chart was put up before the close when the SP was ~1.70 ... the tail is more pronounced after the close @ 1.76] On that basis it looks as if the weekly is about to confirm the momentum change to the positive.

I am being doggedly negative about the stock because there are things about the FA which I am very unhappy about ATM. The SP fall was triggered by the Umiat failure and I think rightly so. In my mind there are now significant cashflow problems just around the corner. Despite the fact the Co. has just raised $200 mill, it still does not substitute for revenue. The Co needs to lock in other income streams, whether it comes from UCG or the US oil fields.

The next big project is the exploration of the sub-salt. My reading about such things makes it pretty clear that this, like Umiat, is not a simple and straight forward gambit. So, again, the prosperity of the Co is riding on some sort of gamble.

Umiat is possibly a very good prospect, but it is an inappropriate one for Linc at its current stage of growth. The sub-salt drilling might also fall into that category. As events have proceeded, it has become much clearer to me that PB is using the Co to fund his adventures. Umiat clearly, so far, is an expensive non success.

Now all of this might turn out brilliantly ... or it might also end up as a reckless excursion. BUT, as things stand right now .... the Umiat failure has pushed the Co into being financially vulnerable. Things from here on have to go right. If deals are not consummated, or the US oil venture does not continue to grow etc. etc. then where is the money going to come from? The Arckaringa JV will not initially bring in enough cash to tide the Co. over. The divestment of the Qld coal is in train but it needs to finalize.

So, I look at the chart and I see good TA reasons to buy and I see FA reasons which question the foundation. When I buy a stock I really am NOT doing so with the intention to try and trade it later for a cash profit. For me the FA has to be convincing first ... then I will use the charts to try and maximize my use of capital. The SP looks as if it is going to continue to go up atm but I can not see it being sustained unless the revenue problems are met and solved. When that day comes I will be a buyer ......

So, short term there appear to be some possibilities ... and I suspect that is what a majority of people on HC are looking for. I am here for reasons other than that.

[Until quite recently I was a holder of LNC, in fact I was 'all-in'. I became distressed by the upheaval of the CR and I am thoroughly allergic to short sellers these days. I sold out when I saw the charts screaming at me to do so. Subsequent to that I became alarmed by the Umiat project and the lack of informative anns coming from the Co. Now that we are informed about Umiat it is reason to be cautious IMO]