NEN 0.00% 22.0¢ neon capital ltd

2 milll sell overhang, page-23

  1. 2,408 Posts.
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    Coff, it is a valid discussion though many seem to be focusing on finance soley as via CR and are also behaving as if they expect a CR very soon.

    Extra costs of 105 are relevant, which will in part be offset by NSA income of $2M+. 120 costs will hit November at the earliest.

    On what we know right now it would appear Neon should hold on to $7-10M from the last quarters $19M. Plenty for 6 months even if Vietnam fails on both counts.

    What we do know is that in the event of success we could be looking at several appraisal wells at both 105 and 120 which Neon can not meet their share from current revenues.

    CR could be one strategy given success implies a higher sp and likely good demand from Insto/Sophs.

    Success on both Vietnam fields may see Neon sell off one to fund the other.

    I don't see NSA/Glau being sold off short term as the cash flow would be very useful until Vietnam is in production in say 3 years time. The remaining CA assets would get a token discovered undeveloped value which would be pretty much petty cash in the scheme of things.

    Finance, or securitisation of production could also be a possibility but hard for a junior to achieve in this climate.

    The best scenario would be success in Vietnam propelling the sp something close to Timbers $2.88 in which case any dilution will be small relative to the huge funds generated to put Vietnam into production.

    While none of us particularly like dilution its hard to complain about if you invest in junior stocks as typically they generate insufficient cash flow to sustain themselves in the early years. They have to go looking for funds elsewhere periodically.

    For a junior oiler, the best time is after a big declared discovery. Heres hoping Neon delivers, as indicators to date, while not infallible, look about as good as it gets in this game.


 
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