W2V 7.14% 1.5¢ way 2 vat ltd.

Mate, there is no point trying to explain to day traders about...

  1. 1,871 Posts.
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    Mate, there is no point trying to explain to day traders about the company. They are not interested about the company, its products or services. Simply they treat it as a stock not as a business, they don't care if the company fails or succeeds and only care about 5% monthly compounding gains on their portfolio.

    That said, just for you as you seem heavily and passionately invested on this...

    The more simple way of looking at this is, the product that's been around is an AI-tool that helps businesses with VAT/GST. The new product launched is an add-on to help with audits.

    These products are not really for small businesses. They are more cost effective for companies with multiple cross-jurisdiction/countries transactions, as each country has their own laws and regulations and it's hard to keep track, especially if you're dealing with lots of transactions.

    The first AI-tool mentioned already (app to help with taxes) has over 350 customers/businesses using it, as I understand it. Basic way of looking at it is that it's about tax returns. The thing to note here if to invest in the company is that it's already generating revenue - 20% to 25% of customers returns - a good sign as you can scale that for the same cost to profitability. This is fundamental.

    The company spent capex to expand their product offering and have since released this new AI product per recent announcement for audits, which can complement the tool for VAT/GST. It's important to note that there's not yet evidence of use, ie. customers have yet to procure this new tool and release to production for use by their Finance team, at least not that I'm aware of. However such an AI-tool that tracks multiple countries tax laws (note how many new things come up such as IRA in the U.S., CRMA in EU, Net Zero, tax incentives, tariffs, subsidies etc) and apply that to each of your invoices for different countries/jurisdictions would be a sought after tool... hence the hype.

    Financially, the company is already generating revenue, which is a good sign. Less risk when it comes to start ups. Already in the millions so this is not a company to be down ramping about (you try creating a product getting 350 customers to use it and earning that much see if it's so easy before you scoff at that, it's an achievement in itself). The new product is even more promising, if the functionality is as what it promises, helps with audit, ability to do it in-house, then that's a functionality worth procuring, as it would save a lot of money per the complexity already mentioned and the associated cost to that. Essentially, the "sell" is the cost/time/resources of this AI-tool is less than what a company would normally spend on audit, which typically for medium-large enterprise uses a 3rd party more often than not one of the big four to help them with it. This is the hype.

    The first of the two products I described cost customers 20-25% of their VAT/GST (tax returns), which the company roughly make $1M per quarter, or $3.3M last year. Fundamental.

    The new product is vaguely costed at $1 per invoice, so if it is taken up, I roughly forecasted a boosted revenue of approx $5M per quarter, which usually take about a year of market adoption. Scale that up to $100M per year after two years (if it works as intended even if with some glitches) as early growth is often exponential, based on current clientele. Sidenote: In my view the company should opt for subscription base rather than per use on their cost model. Also these are just numbers I'm throwing around for arguments sake, one possibility out of many outcomes. Forward estimates.

    The kicker here is that it's tech. A sought after AI-tool if to assist/resolve audit problems companies are already facing allowing for cost savings.. and adoption can happen very quickly with immediate effect. Hence another reason for the hype.

    As with any start up, profitability takes a back seat. Both OPEX and CAPEX gets funded by capital investment. However the company is already showing promise having earned $3.3M last year, with clear product expansion and model for growth to profitability (economies of scale). Very good reason worth looking further into as a promising investment. This is fundamental.

    That 2yr forecast, and I just did that on the spot, is what investors look for if investing for capital gains. It doesn't have to be 2yrs, just see it more like Shark Tank - what can the investor offer in order to unlock further value from where it is today. That's what's causing the surge in share price. Often than not, investors purchase at market before offering the target company further investment via capital raise (to issue more shares) to unlock further value via further expansion of product, services and/or customer base. Forward estimates.

    Further, a larger company who's already developing something similar but the public doesn't know about in the AI sector could 'nip it in the bud' sort of speak, the competition before they become too big, even if they are not yet a threat, by acquiring the patent if not the company itself. That's why any mention of AI gets so much attention. It reminds me (and I'm sure others) of the dot com boom. Another reason for the hype.

    All up, there is hype and there is fundamentals. Both required and both are present on W2V.

    Hence in my view, with current market capitalisation it's worth the risk of minor punt. They the product out. Where the company ends up, at this stage, no body knows... but it's promising.

    Although promises, more often than not doesn't live up to what start ups generally deliver, it's almost always worth taking a look. It will not be a finished product and will likely need refinement... that's where the investment would be required, is it even worth spending to refinement? Will it be adopted by the market and scale?

    Personally, a reminder I'm here to test drive the product, not necessarily to invest in the company. It appears to be able to help address one of a plethora of business problems. Sidenote: Tech is not my bread and butter, M&A is and predominantly mining sector. But SSDD or perhaps same sh* different business.

    PS. I just happen to see an opportunity and by instinct or learnt experience I bought shares but with a view to test drive the product/services. So perhaps someone more experienced in this sector can also share their views. I'm also happy to be corrected. Nevertheless I hope this post helps.

    Each to their own risk/reward analysis.
    Last edited by BRProject: 21/02/24
 
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