Some may call me crazy, some may call it wishful thinking. Some may call it way too early.
But, bar a financial world wide meltdown, I predict 2022 will be the year we crack $20, and I am starting the party. So if you want a celebratory space, get ready to move a groove in this thread.
Why, why, why, would I predict such a thing?
1) Top of the list. Is GCar's much loved log chart. Worst case on current trend in $20 in early August, best case May-June. Not to far away to start party planning is it?
2) For the log chart to work, we need strong month on month growth. Can that happen? Will that happen?
Evidence as follows:
2a) Pricing
Our Aus and Arg producing assets are worth diamonds at the moment. Mt C has been doing the heavy c ash flow lifting, but come 2022 Oz stage 1 contracts will start renewing to higher levels. Cash generation from both assets will continue to provide a boost for expansion plans.
Let's look at a comment from Joe Lowry: "
Yes, lithium price is getting harder to predict but I believe that a China spot price > $50K/MT is more likely in 2022 than the return to $13K that Morgan calls for by 12/31/2022. Of course, in January 2019 Morgan predicted carbonate prices below $10K/MT from 2021-2030. Perhaps theyare learning, albeit slowly."
Can such a price be possible? Let's look at the most recent sales:
So in 2021 lithium demand grew by approx 150k MT. This growth was not expected in 21, and guess what everyone won't expect how large the growth will be in 2022. Lithium demand will continue to push beyond supply as more EVs, stationary and other devices surge ahead. It's all about market share.
Across 2022 Mt C spod and Oz carb could be selling at double the respective YoY price points compared to 2021. Imagine that!
2b) Can we double in share price?
Well let's look what happened in 2021. Did we double? We more than doubled. Doubling again is possible if we look at the growth options and the much higher profit margins that will come through.
2c) Growth
Mt C - expect more of the same
Olaraz - the pictures say it all. Ponds will be completed shortly. Brine will be filled and ready for harvesting in time for Nahara commissioning. Then profits will come pouring in. Do the maths. 2022 will be bigger than 2021! A picture tells a thousand words
SDV - this has been a sore point for GXY holders, the wait, the wait, the wait. The pictures don't lie, 2022 will be the year that ponds are built and brine filled (stage 1 at least). Come end of 22, things will start lining up nicely for 2023. We then have stages 2 and 3 for future growth.
James Bay - Start construction end of 22. That will make analysts have to update their forecasts as we heads into bigger supply deficiets in the years ahead.
2d) The big players - M&A on us or on others will be an influential factor. As more get desperate, as more join the lithium bandwagon valuations will go up. See JL post. Big fish are circling.
So, I think this post is long enough, so I will stop there.
In summary, the chart says $20 is possible, I say bar a major world event it is possible, the evidence I provided shows it is possible. Longs you just need to remember that the traders will make this go up and down on that journey (they need to make their money too), but for those holding tight, don't let go.
Party,party, party!!!!
Who is with me????
