20 yr chart, page-18

Voltaire,

Terry Laundry has got his 40 year cycle starting from 1974 so if you're right about this being where the gradient increased - well he may be on the money with some of his calls, and I might have to take more notice of what he's saying.

In the last week or two, I've been thinking 1985 as the base for this correction (probably because I've only been using Yahoo Finance charts which don't go back earlier). A 5600 point move from 800 base in 1985 to 6400 (true high) indicates 50 fib at 3600. With the bounce to 4400 it appears to me that we either hold 3940 as the low or fall to maybe 3400-3600.

It would be interesting to see what level the 50fib is with a 1974 or 1982 starting point. Couldn't imagine we're levelling out now/soon at a 61.8fib as that suggests a possible fall all the way back to the bottom.

Also, if you look at the US and European charts, you see 2 spike highs. The latest high is actually the 2nd test of the upside of the channel up there. The first test was back in 2000, but our market didn't have any major tech companies. This may explain why we're failing now with just the single spike - ie. the US/Europe actually spiked/tested twice, failed to break higher and fell - and we're following them despite our chart not showing the first spike.

The DAX is very interesting: It ran from 2000pts in 1996 to 8000 in 2000, then collapsed over the next 3 years back to 2300. Then it ran back up to 8000 mid-2007 and early 2008. With such a flat base leading into 1996, this suggests a downside target of perhaps 2500 if it can't hold around 5000.

We might get a better feel for downside targets if anybody is able to post charts of XAO, Dow, FTSE and Dax from 1974.