200,000 oz - 2 scenarios

Hi All,

Thanks to tailspin for catching the 200,000 Oz significance in the annual report and paul, reiner, alba , fitnfam and others for their take on proceedings. Started a new thread guys as the other was getting rather long.

Personally, i saw it and didn't think twice about it.

So, based on the forum feedback, i have wasted some time looking at the 2 scenario's mentioned. Anyway, it's fun to speculate and share. Whichever is right, or perhaps neither, then it doesn't really matter as this is food for thought and my contribution to the discussion.

General Notes:
1. FY12 Q1 = Sep 2011 quarter
2. FY12 Q2 = Dec 2011 quarter - forecast based on history (and guesstimates)
3. Graph 1 is just a general graph showing month by month production in total, and Tindals contribution.
4. Graph 2 = Scenario 1
5. Graph 3 = Scenario 2

The 2 scenario's

Scenario 1 - 200,000 Oz in Ann refers to "overall production". This means Sep Qtr will be around 19,016 Oz in total.
Scenario 2 - 200,000 Oz in Ann refers to "Tindals alone". This means Sep qtr production may be as high as 36,950 Oz.

I don't know which is right, hopefully Scenario 2. Would be a record quarter.

Some other notes:

Scenario 1 - if this occurs, means Dec Qtr would need to be > 44,000 Oz to reach 100,000 Oz for 2010. Would also mean Tindals annual average production sitting at about 63,000 Oz versus a forecast of 85,000 Oz.

Scenario 2 - if this occurs, means Dec Qtr production at say 32,000 Oz would take us to around 105,000 Oz for the year. This also puts Tindals average for 2010 at a target of around 86,000 Oz - very close to the original forecast. This scenario however, points to only 3,102 Oz from other than Tindals which is highly unlikely given forecasts for the Mount.


So, i am not saying either is right, just ran some numbers to see what popped out. Both are theoretically conceivable (especially with higher grade through the Mill), yet if Scenario 1 happens, there will be some unhappy campers in here - including me...