Having ridden this since the early naughties, and through the GFC bone-shaker, and then remembering the joyous (*) Nov '16 day when Trump was elected and we could plough more into it @ ~$70, given that there are those that, somewhat understandably, feel this has gotten a little bloated, here's a slightly contrarian & qualitative take on things.
When you work in other companies (particularly those high MC listed ones that like to soothe with their LTIFR, diversity %'s etc.), despite their IR wallpaper that they're solely focussed on TSR, you soon realise the enormity of the focus, both operational and strategic, that necessarily goes into their raison d'etre, that they have to manage and grapple with, and then hope that it financially rewards them. CSL need to do stuff with plasma, and then aim to make money, Wow needs to procure and distribute staples, and then aim to make money, VEA the same with hydrocarbons and then aim to make money, BHP dig stuff up and aim to make money, even other 'financials' with insurance and banking - they still have a core product/line of business, from which they aim to make money. Simplistic I know, but fundamentally true in my experience.
MQG....? They aim to make money ! That is their core business, that receives 100% of their focus, and armed with financial/self-interest incentivised top-decile analysts and commercial vultures, they pick opportunities in the core businesses of others, whether it be tech, infrastructure, energy, derivatives, it don't matter....they have a singular purpose, and they don't need to concern themselves with any intermediary focus or operational distraction. Again, simplistic, but with that high-level lens, their addressable market veers to infinity.
I've also worked with, and had work for me, ex Macca people, and you get an insight into their hiring filters, which obviously gives me confidence in them working my money hard.
And, slightly quantitatively, at an EPS that is probably looking towards $10 (maybe not right now, but hard to believe it wouldn't be in three years), so a multiple of NPAT in the low 20's, it still doesn't strike me as that overstressed or bubbly, particularly as can't see a material rise in the risk-free price any time soon.
I'm also comfortable, as a longer term holder, with a slight lessening of the payout ratio, if they believe they can do more with the money than I can (which I also must believe, otherwise I wouldn't have lent it to them in the first place).
If I'd bought at, say, $150, maybe I'd bite the bullet and crystalise a bit of CGT to throw the dice elsewhere on the bourse, but nah......I sleep pretty well believing there's still not massive downside here, just because the clearing price now starts with a 2. After all, they've weathered, and learnt from, the sub-prime catastrophe, and they've knocked covid for six....
(*) joyous as regards to the market meltdown, which pretty much ultimately proved unfounded, not because of the joke of the election result
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