Another few weeks and the supply freefall will start IMHO.
Traditionally our d/s cycle sees LME Ni inventory peak over the next few weeks and demand kicks in and outruns supply pressuring prices up.
This will test the depth of US housing cutbacks vs SEAsian Ni demand increases.Will that demand for cars, batteries etc offset stell home frames?
Done want to oversimplify it but these are some of the factors.
FINANCIAL POST EXTRACT.
"Nickel prices expected to average US$16 in 2008, could spike to US$20
It has been a rollercoaster ride for nickel prices this year, and with global demand expected to rise 10% in 2008, one analyst sees a recovery for the metal.
Nickel prices, currently trading around US$13 per pound, have the ability to bounce back and average US$16 in 2008, according to Desjardins Securities analyst John Redstone. In fact, he thinks price spikes could send the metal as high as US$20.
This should come as a result of resurgent demand and a subsequent small supply deficit next year, he told clients in a note. Even lower inventories are expected to put upward pressure on prices.
Stainless steel production, which accounts for roughly 65% of nickel end use, should rise slightly this year and climb 9.8% in 2008, Mr. Redstone said, adding that the stainless steel inventory correction appears to be over. While nickel demand is expected to jump in 2008, it fell 1.1% in 2007 due to a reduction in stainless steel production.
So which stocks does the analyst recommend for investors looking to capitalize on nickel prices?
Desjardins has a “buy� recommendation on both Sherritt International Corp. (S/TSX) and GobiMin Inc. (GMN/TSX-V), with price targets of $19.30 and $5.30, respectively.
Jonathan Ratner "
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