2009 likely to see widespread food shortages, page-16

hi plough

A couple or three comments:

My understanding is that the US biofuel industry is heavily dependent on government support and in fact the high oil and fertiliser prices were killing the industry - I remember reading that a number of ethanol plants in the US went broke during their summer months when input prices were mile high. Plus one of Obama's key planks is energy independence, and the quickest bang he can get is by giving continued financial support for biofuel production. I think in the medium term biofuels from edible crops is a deadend but it should stay strong for the next couple of years at least.

Don Coxe has been saying for some time now that the US midwest has had a record run of good seasons, partly due to improved farming and plant technology but also partly due to a flukey run of good weather. Perhaps they have not heard of Hanrahan over there but sooner or later their luck must run out.

I read last week a report from the northern US states where apparently in normal years they put half the fertiliser on before the snow comes and half afterwards, but this year it seems that on average farmers are betting on 10% before and 90% afer (hoping for cheaper fertiliser in 2009 and hoping to lower the risk on wasted inputs). But the problem is that the US infrastructure is run down and the writer foresaw fertiliser shortages developing on the farm (sorry no link).

So all in all I think there is some possibility that the US may not save the world from a food shortage in 2009.