2009 the year of the bbi rebound

550,000 US jobs lost in November alone, the worst in over 30 years.... what does the DOW do? Loses 240 points then rallies 500+ points to finish +260.

So the Dow is starting to rally on bad news. That tells us a bottom is forming. There is of course no guarantee that the worst is over...BUT, when bad news is ignored in equity markets, the signs are there of a base forming. Equity markets are forward looking. Whilst the economy will be weak in 2009, equities have priced that in.

If the above is true and the DOW can stabilise and even rally in 2009, stocks that have been decimated that have intrinsic value will be re-rated very quickly in 2009. Infrastructure will be a major beneficiary of a recovery and BBI is well placed to benefit.

If we can get an asset sale away in the next month, pay off most of that corporate debt, CUT the management ties from BNB and rename the company, those milestones will be the catalyst for a substantial rally in the value of BBI.

LIBOR continues to ease, credit is starting to thaw. This is the biggest risk to BBI.... availability of bank refinancing. Once the FEAR of frozen credit subsides, BBI will fly. Of that I have no doubt. That's why I am long BBI. Risks still remain but the significant upside still warrants that risk, for me. Others, including institutional fund managers may want to wait for the risk to pass in BBI. For them, it's better to pay 30c, 40c, even 60c and be confident. Everyone has a different risk tolerance.