2010 annual report, page-2

Unless J50 and J51 come up trumps, I doubt $100 MC by xmas.

The $10/bbl is an average yardstick derived from DCF model for the industry. Obviously it is very dependent on many things, particularly the cost of development, the flow rate, and the growth rate.

But to simplify the industry uses $10 as a rough guide. Some projects will be higher and some lower.

$6mil is high for development cost.

360bopd is low for flow rate.

And at this stage growth rate is tortoise speed. But at a guess 2 or 3 wells in 2011.

The coverage JPR have had, ie Patersons and Westhouse used $10.43 and $12odd from memory. But both have been blown out of the water with the assumptions they made to date.

Also DCF of $10/bbl is like an ideal, like NAV. Sure some companies trade at a premium, but most are at heavy discount. Look some up.

Clearly the keys will be boosting the flow rate and growth rate.

The true value lies with the yet to be confirmed Jurrasic zone. If it ends up in that 80mmbo range, then JPR is a huge bargain.

If you use the "independent" but not certified 8.6mmbo, and exclude the Jurrasic zone and discount for cash on hand. You have current 8.6mmbo = $45mil or $5.23/bbl

That is a big discount to $10/bbl, so certainly room to improve.

BUT if you include the Jurassic(we need to wait for J52), then we have 80mmbo and a value just above $1/bbl.

That leaves alot of room for improvement and error. Even if Jurassic is halved to 40mmbo, its still huge. Or halve the $10/bbl and use $5/bbl. Alot of manouvering room.

The block extension is a concern to me.

We might just have enough for J52, but if we expand then another cap raising will happen. No point being $100mil MC if 2bil shares on issue.

Also its not just capex but opex to worry about. From $75/bbl JPR see about $35.

Not long until JPR shows its true colors. We will know how quickly and the cost of J51, and the stimulated flow rates.