ICN 0.00% 0.6¢ icon energy limited

Although the recent announcement augers well, I personally would...

  1. 8,367 Posts.
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    Although the recent announcement augers well, I personally would be waiting before buying more Icon. The main reason is that I can see few short-term drivers of the share price (i.e/ next 1-2 months).

    First, the MOU announcement has had enough time to work itself through the system. It looks like the market has decided it has a near-neutral effect on the share price (+ves include SOE involvement and higher likelihood of eventual agreement, -ves include delays to signing and to drilling).

    Second, there is no near-term drilling schedule, with delays already foreshadowed in last announcement. Even if Lydia recommences (who knows when) it will be a long time before getting any price sensitive information (e.g. core thickness, gas flow, 2P reserves). There is a possibility that they may announce a shale drill using recently raised cash, but that is speculation.
    Third, BPT will take another 2 months to complete their next shale hole. I see the shale story as a key driver of the Icon share price. However, I can envisage few announcements coming out from BPT that will benefit Icon in the near term.
    Fourth, the next major announcement is likely to be the completion of the MOU, and that is in a couple of months and no guarantees there as it all depend now on the foibles of the Chinese bureaucracy.
    Fourth, there is still uncertainty around the BPT share issue and at what price.

    All in all, I will be cautiously holding and am in no rush to top up. Having said that, Icon have a knack of pulling surprises.
 
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