Guys - I ran some numbers based on the conservative forecasts in the report.
NEP, at 5% premium increase $16,590M
Insurance margin, at 11% $1,825M
Investment income (s/hold) $450M (assume 6%)
Finance -$325M (same)
Impairment (as forecast) -$150M
Profit before Tax $1,800M
Tax (assume ret to norm rate) -$360M
NPAT $1,440M
Add back impairment for Cash Profit $1,590M
Current market cap $15,700M
PE <10 on cash basis
Dividend at 50% payout of cash ratio = 66c a share, 5% fully franked, 7.2% grossed up. Lower payout ratio than previous, but that is prudent and they should not have to underwrite. Maybe it can be increased when capital position is strong enough.
Thereafter: $250M in cost savings, increasing investment returns through higher interest rates.
Remember: worst drought on record, worst storm on record, record low interest rates - and the company still made a billion in cash. it only trades at 15.5 times that low point now.
2013 earnings expectation
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