2013, page-2

JIN at 36c 12 months ago was a total joke and just goes to show how easy it is to make great returns in the small end of the market.

I estimated forwad earning at 15c per share(ended up being over 16c) at the time so a forward PE of not much more that 2, plus cash backing per share of 25c so you were actually paying 11c for something that would end up earning 16c per share. The SA licence had already been announced so the company was derisked and to say it was one of the no brainer of 2012 is an understaement.

That said I can confidently say that JIN will end 2013 closer to your low point that your $8 high point GrandCombin!!!!!

The reason for this has nothing to do with fiscal cliffs or Euro defaults but is simple maths. New overseas licences will take about 3 years to be profitable. Simply put the more licences they win the less profitable they will be for the next few years as the initial customer acquistion costs will be expensed in the year it is spent.

We all know that the more licences they will overseas the more profitable they will be in the long term but the market is not so patient and I can't see it trading on a pe of near 100 for several years before the cash starts rolling in.

Just my view,

Cheers