Hi Folks With the share price target consensus forecast on ROC...

Hi Folks
With the share price target consensus forecast on ROC being mid 60s at present I thought I would open up discussion on what a realistic SP target for this year ( 2014 ) could be if the FID is given on the Malaysian RSC

The only attempt have seen at valuing this was years ago when a broker converted the value to an oil reserve of about 5. 4m boe

My valuation is
13 million reserves - 325 million at 25 NPV per barrel ( I have minused this years production and assumed zero additions)
140 miillion ( cash and Balai equity- I have added only 13 million extra cash for Dec quarter but expect it to be higher )
RSC NPV - assume 150 million
Bohai free carry value and back costs to be paid by HZN - 40 m

Total value 665m or approx 94 cents per share.
Ofcourse the market rarely ascribes full value to oilers therefore I suggest the 65- 75 range is very achievable assuming oil holds