SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

2015 - per the 10K, page-16

  1. 1,593 Posts.
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    Cmon, another interest of mine is water management and some of the principles of that fit nicely with the Oaktree article. Basically in draught build and plan for flood and vice versa. Also that led me to look at Iceberg theory which suggests we can only see 10% on the surface but 90% is below the surface and whilst we can try to work out the 90% some of it is remains unknown despite any effort. I think combining all three approaches gives balance when applying to stocks and whilst it may not deliver short term success it gives the best chance to avoid large losses and hopefully identify opportunities.

    It is understandable that atm there is uncertainty and as many people may have red screens it is frustrating. On most O&G atm discussion is minimal but currently there is a good opportunity to have discussion whilst the market is down. I think these things work in cycles so one day it will pick up so I am more focussed on that and identifying a portfolio that can firstly survive this stage and then be in position to prosper when things pick up if that makes sense.

    I think the EBITDAX looks ok but something to watch. I think the hedges in place provides opportunity to balance any operating shortfall and the existing liquidity can also be used to reduce the debt if necessary.

    I think the Paradox is a good project and will be important for future growth. If we approach these with a decision tree then the OP imo will determine the path taken. If $60 is maintained I think it possible they could do more development under Gene, Leonard and Gary. Because the prospect is understood and infrastructure in place this could present lower risk and with the new lower cost regime may give very good returns. If paradox works at $50 then any higher price will give better returns and this may also address production growth into the future. It also adds diversity as does the Badger prospect. The positive with that is it is low cost and provides some drilling which may attract some interest. Time will tell and these are just guesses from me.

    Another good read at the moment is a recent Whiting Barclay's presentation and I suspect SSN's strategy is similar. see Whiting Presentations. R. Zeits has also done an article on this in SA and the link I found was reference in the Bakken blog.

    As I have accounting background being interesting or exiting was never my forte, hope my stuffs not too boring for others but we can only do our best.
    Cheers & GLTA
 
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