Hi Rob,
Always enjoy a reasoned discussion. Interesting thought of yours on the prepayment to keep the ratio whole. Its definitely the number to watch (for this Qtr and next) due to the sensitivity to oil price. Something you might like to do is create a sensitivity of EBITDAX to WTI (remembering to take off the differential). My concern as highlighted is if 3.47 is the multiple for those annualized inputs then its going to be close again.
Why are you ignoring G&A (or have I misinterpreted?) for cash cost? Lifting cost is LOE+Taxes. Cash costs accepted as Lifting +G&A+Interest (and preferred dividends if any). I only pointed out the full cost (adding in DD&A) just for Net Operating Income purposes. Just about all shalers are failing on this at present. I agree on your DD&A estimate BTW.
2016 will be interesting as the presentation doesn't quite gel with the 10K and while the good news is that SSN is living within cash generated from Ops. The negative IMO and this differs from yours, is that production and reserves are declining and not much on the horizon to arrest that. For an E&P company that's not where you want to be - even in low oil price. I can only point to some of the big guys like say CLR and their strategy is not to grow at present price (which I agree with and EOG has be saying this for a couple of Qtrs now) but to align their Capex to their cash flow and try and maintain current production. Walking a tightrope.
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