Hi Cmon, at the current Oil Price I think the ratio will be close but manageable. I am unsure if the calc is annualised on mth or quarter or a historical annualised result so I am using the historical as a guide. If I'm correct on the repayment reason it gives confidence the ratio is closely watched and there are means to ensure compliance imo.
With the G&A I didn't mean ignore in total but to separate from the cost/boe for sensitivity analysis and work backwards. ie. for 2015 the G&A was $17.73 for 271,431 or $4.8m in total. I think usually G&A is largely a fixed cost so if volume is higher cost will still be $4.8m therefore including in in new project costing can overstate requirements. For a new project review I would take the LOE & taxes and add only those additional G&A costs related to the project such as new staff etc. Imo for SSN the North Stockyard wells are and will cover the company fixed costs in 2016. FWIW I think most of the press articles on break even are general in nature and need to be adapted for individual companies operations.
Re production I agree the boed will decline but that doesn't matter to me because the producing days for the wells in 2016 will be higher than 2015 and this should imo balance production overall. Also the boed now is more oil weighted so the average boe price has not fallen as much as the OP. Again the press says in general national production will decline but that may not be the case for a specific company and there prodn mix and they are all different and at different stages of development. In this respect I think SSN is unique because those new wells have only been producing for a short period so YOY the numbers can be calculated and should be higher even allowing for decline.
I think the main theme for 2016 is to not pursue agressively growth by taking unnecessary risk but to have stability, patience and be ready when things improve or sufficient cash is saved from the existing monthly production. The important thing being protecting the bottom line whilst not losing site of longer term (2017) challenges where the decline will be more evident if reserves not replenished. Because the market is not paying attention we can all do our homework, take our time, work our own strategy and balance our risk/reward just the same as these companies. If the cash funding for new projects comes from operations this is a low cost source of capital however it is a bit boring but ultimately should give better returns and lower overll risk imo. Also at these prices it would be cheaper to buy distressed assets than drill but I think it equally important to not became breakfast for some other company due to valuations.
I'm glad our DD&A agrees, June Qtr amortisation looked high but is consistent with balance sheet housekeeping and because this has been done gives some indication of the likely upside if OP recovers.
Have a great weekend, lots of numbers to look at! lol.
Bw
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