2015 - per the 10K, page-9

Hi

Hi Rob,

I think we are very much crossed purposes on production - especially as I think we are both using the same data (or estimate thereof).

IMO there is no value in looking at FY2015 Total BO produced 225,806 BO and looking forward to FY2016 and cheering that Total BO has increased to (estimated) 262,551 BO. Posted the spreadsheet at the bottom which simply uses SSN reported monthly oil (only) production and then my best estimate off of the Enercom graph.

Firstly on the Enercom graph - while it is the only forward given it is highly inaccurate going on the forecast for July 15 and August 15 compared to what was reported. So CAUTION is warranted on that number

Secondly, and by far more importantly (IMO) what I am looking at an why I say production is declining (in total BO produced as well as bopd) is because I'm using a TTM model. I believe that is far more relevant (to look back only 12 months on a rolling basis). It's also useful to look at the total TTM bopd number and the %decline/increase as well. And if it was reported the exit rate production at each month.

What I see is peak oil production for SSN in Jan'16 and declining from there - hence my viewpoint that production is in decline. This is what a lot of the discussion is about with the bigger E&P about maintenance capital and growth capital and what it takes in spend to keep the company production in place.

FWIW. Hopefully that clears it up.

Black numbers should match up to SSN reported figures. Blue numbers are my best eyeball at production off of Enercom slide. Red numbers are estimates using the black and blue numbers as inputs.