Whichever side anyone is on, its gonna be an interesting quarterly on 31 Jan..... Hopefully there will be an MDL, JORC upgrade or at least an assay result announcement before then... in which case the quarterly will just be icing!
If the directors wanted the SP to fall significantly below real value, then they have achieved their aim. QBL are at rock-bottom prices against value IMO, but if that MDL doesn't come though soon there wont be much value.
I have been asking myself why the directors would want the SP to fall........ if they were looking for funds then maybe the lower the SP is, the cheaper they can offer at a 20% (or so) discount against a 10-day average to make the Share Plan or Institutional Investor offer more attractive... but they were cashed up to $6mil recently and have LOC's they can use, so why would they be looking for actual funds at this time?
Maybe they want the company to take a loss this year, I wondered. The directors have considerable personal skin in the game....it's one thing writing down the company, but no-one likes to lose money personally. So that's not the answer.
Then I wondered: maybe with declining mineral prices, they are waiting for the world bauxite price to go up.....while that may be part of the answer, for the MDL though, we are ONLY talking about 1% as a test of quality and means and timing for future deliveries. They cant finalise future off-take agreements until there is assurance of quality of this sample.
Then they can move to set up agreements with incremental increases in purchase price through production (assuming that we are at current rock-bottom bauxite price now). In any case, with the problems in Malaysia, AUS bauxite is looking extremely attractive atm and there are great deals to be had due to supply and demand issues IMO. So that's obviously not the answer either.
The only other serious possibility IMO is that they DIDN'T actually want the sp to fall, but instead have acted extremely responsibly (esp considering the June/December 2014 debacles in their learning-curves) by NOT releasing assays in the past few months which would push up SP, and NOT releasing a JORC upgrade which would push up SP even further, and then we have to wait this long time for the MDL, which would have caused the SP to fall again, from much higher, and all the punters lose even more money once again as the people who didn't have the patience sold off too early causing a run-down.
I have been nursing this QBL baby for well over 18 months now. Have seen and heard all the ramping, fairy-tale wishful-thinking to help with positive sentiment (mea culpa a bit there too), and heard all the bashing comments by those with agendas. In the final analysis, though, it is what it is and it will be what it will be!
We are all just guessing for our own reasons and no amount of comments either way are going to change the fate. If you believe in the company, then hang in there and be patient a little while longer. If you don't believe, then IMO you may wish to sell your shares to someone who is more positive for QBL's future, because after all, if anyone is holding now but doesn't believe, then maybe you should be thinking: sell for a loss now rather than lose more. BTW that's just my opinion for what it's worth. I don't offer advice.
My money is still on the nose of this one. The directors were very green on this type of resource (even though they have considerable experience in other areas) and whether it was their fault or not, they may have allowed some things to happen 18 months ago that I am sure they regret exponentially, but IMO they are acting extremely professionally these days and are doing everything possible to ensure their shareholders don't lose money going forward.
All they have to do now is prove the resource and IMO we are set to sail. Even if it's only a "Wild Oats".... I would be extremely happy with 8 major wins with QBL over the next decade or so!
BTW Thanks Bob Oatley for Wild Oats, Rosemount Estate and Hamilton Is. Your legacy lives on mate!
QBL Price at posting:
1.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
