I think it would be a valuable exercise to have a calculated...

I think it would be a valuable exercise to have a calculated estimate of how many Yowies the company will sell in 2016.

So from the YowieGroup website and other sources we can attain roughly the following number of stores, assuming that the full roll-outs to Walmart and Safeway will be complete by the start of next year.

Walmart - 4300
Safeway- 1335
Distributors - (6 in total) - 738
Fuel and convenience - (4 in total) - 572
Heb - 300
Specialist candy stores (4 in total-Lolli and Pops, ITSUGAR etc) - 173
Drug - (2 in total) 110

The distributors, fuel and convenience, specialist candy stores and drug store figures were taken from the quarterly report released on 31st of March. These numbers are likely to have changed with trials ending, more stores adding Yowies etc but I will use them in my estimates. Heb stores have not been publicly confirmed but they have been stocking Yowies and are understood to be undertaking a full roll out.

This gives us a total number of stores stocking Yowies of 7,528 at the beginning of 2016.

My conservative estimate is each store selling 50 yowies per week (7 per day). 7528 stores times 50 (Yowies sold per week) times 52 weeks gives us 19,572,800 Yowies sold. This would equate to 35 million+ U.S in revenue (48,000,000 AUD) and with the company making 30 cents U.S profit per Yowie sold it gives us 5,871,840 (8,079,031.37 AUD).

If we bump the number of Yowies sold per week to 100 then it starts to look very interesting. Add in just one of Walgreens, Valero, 7/11 and then it starts to look even more interesting!

Now our current capacity is 20 million per annum with the ability to bump it up to 40 million per annum with a 16 week lead time. I am not sure why the management haven't already begun this process but I think it would prudent to do so in the short term.

Would like to see others estimates and calculations in order to get a reasonable fair value of the share price.