Maybe you are a newbie but reported profit in this company has...

Maybe you are a newbie but reported profit in this company has moving parts that are not operational. The company accounts are required to report based upon a mismatch. You have to revalue the forward inward supply contracts to market but you cannot revalue your customer contracts... An accounting standard that is conservative yes but does not take into account a conservative business practice to match your customer supply with forward purchase ...

I have tried to understand how practically you unwind these new asset values but in reality it gets to be a half yearly thing as I understand it ...

I think there is still a value in the Australian business as the market must resolve its direction in the next few years.

I cannot see $3.00 per hour margin dropping more as its really very low compared with the past. In reality as I understand it the wholesaler has had to take a substantial part of the chaos hit as customers especially the larger ones seek better deals...

However I looked to Origins decision to keep its electricity wholesale business as a positive.

The reality is that I suspect you have jumped in and shorted this - looks like a no brainer. You may even be correct but you could be in trouble. The assets are rich but the profits are poor.

I remember reading that Oakley had a replacement cost upwards of $200 million and was hardly used given its role in the supply chain. If Coal is disappearing the peakers will probably get more runtime. Add Neerabup - not sure how much they own .. must have a large value... Then you have the LGC's they have already handed over to the government - As I understand it purchasing ERM allows you to supply a certain level of electricity - Under these circumstances buying ERM has significant value. Then add the USA...

I dont support selling Oakley - I just think we have to wait to get to the stable end of this cycle. If $3 margin is the bottom then we have a future. USA could just be a game changer...

Then you could have someone come and buy the Australian operations leaving the company with the USA opportunity or an offer for both.

They are not a poorly run operation with bad customer relations - in fact they seem to be the opposite.

Maybe shorting right now is not that risky but who knows when someone decides they can see daylight in this energy market.