OK - two more sleeps to go so what should we expect in the...

OK - two more sleeps to go so what should we expect in the numbers?

Going on guidance given so far we have a very broad number of $1.2B for transacted sales. If I convert that at the same ratio as last year then Sales Revenue would be approx $931.2. Not shabby and 15.1% higher than last year. If I use the conversion rate of 2015 then sales would be $942.2m. So for the sake of the exercise lets round sales off at $940m. Of course if they keep performing the way they have in the past - that is under promising and over delivering - then sales could be a good $5 or $10m higher if the transacted sales sneak up to the $1.22b mark.

Again going on guidance NPAT should be at least 25% above last year. So that puts us at $$61.6m - meaning the NPAT margin is 6.6% - up from 6.1% from prior year. However if I again take the view mgt like to under promise and over deliver (very wise and prudent IMO) then it would be no surprise if the margin gets up to 7.0%. If that is the case then NPAT would be $65.8m on the $940.0m of sales. This means NPAT has increased by 33.5% over last year. Very aggressive but if you cant dream big two days before the result then when can you?

So what does it all mean - in summary: I expect sales to be $940.0m and NPAT to be $61.6m. But if the planets align then sales could be $950.0m and NPAT up to $65.8m. Given there is 319.3m shares issued that equates to EPS of 19.3c up to 20.6c. What is a good PE ratio for CGC? IMO if you have a company growing the top line by over 15% and the bottom line by 25% then you can easily justify a PE ratio of 25. This puts the share price in the range of $4.82 to $5.15. Of course any valuation is really based on the future expectations rather than the past performance so it will be very interesting to see if they issue a trading update and guidance at this early stage. The good news is I don't expect any down side to the current share price - and with a bit a luck we burst through the $5.00 mark pretty quickly.

All good IMO.

Cheers

slc4me