Daily.
Well that was a disappointing week but not entirely unexpected.
Monday saw a follow up to the previous Fridays rally and an attempt to move the sp up & test the resistance (falling trend lines), this was what the indicators were hinting at as they were all lined up and coming up from the oversold area. The attempt was blocked with smallish volume selling the sp down to close below the nearest previous resistance. That was the base of the gap.
Tue. An attempted shakeout selling down to the support on a bit higher volume but rallied to close in the top half of the days range. It was Tue that the indicators started to return to their avg lines indicating further short term weakness to come.
Wed. An inside gap open that was always going to close & another test of resistance and again blocking the attempt with smaller volume & closing at the low.
Thu. Small volume & another failure to push through the s/t down trending resistance line
Frid. Small range, low volume, close at the low & s/t support.
Outlook.
With the persistent blocking of any rally, the indicators all trending down again & the volume having dried up to a trickle, the scene is set for another attempted shakeout.
There does not appear to be any selling as such & the mm’s are clearly in control & it looks like roughly 11 million have been accumulated @ $0.21 – 21.5 in this current s/t trading range from the 9 – 19 Oct.
An update will of course remove any short term negativity & the current resistance around 22 – 23 should be cleared with ease.
Down side support in the event of a shakeout is around 20 – 21.
LT Support is on the rising trend line around 19.
Weekly
Positives.
Volume very low (less than half the previous week)
Higher close than prev bar.
Stoch 5 now very wide from the avg line.
Histogram still above zero
MACD is at its avg (sig) line
Long term up trend is still rising. (4
th Higher low)
Negatives.
Failed to break thru the s/t down trend & resistance.
There is a Low alert sig on my weekly model indicating the potential for a lower low than last weeks close. (61% hit rate)
Outlook.
As per usual we are going nowhere without news and will potentially see a retest of the 19 - 20 level again.
Weekly support is around 19 – 21. (converging trends)
Resistance remains at 23 – 23.5 with the top of the blue fork
Looking further out and with no update or news by the weeks end then we are looking at the very real possibility of retesting 16 again.
That is based on the sp returning to the ML of the down trending fork.
If that happens it will be just more BS from the mm’s trying to get cheap shares.
Don’t let them have them.
Most of the volumes traded are by the smart money. That includes selling volume.
We are just as smart.
Let them sell to themselves & don’t gift them your shares.
Cant be long now.
Common AGY team its time to bring this baby home.
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