AGY (ASX) 2018 Charting

Originally posted by domum ↑

First of all thanks for Ur analysis yesterday Seagull. Bit busy yesterday and wanted to keep away from the screen in case we did retest below 19c. Nothing to worry about as it turned out with sellers and buyers not buying into the MMs games, well intraday anyway.

Tomorrow’s another story.

Interested as to why u think some volume is MM created. I’m guessing it has to do with the nature of the intraday trade and bots being utilised in amongst the larger same size sells. Auction was a case in point with 3 x 10k trades with the last dropping the sp to 19c.

Not a big volume day as it turned out which might show the MMs powder is perhaps running a bit low as the market in general was a bit of a blood bath with many larger stocks dropping twice the % we AVERAGED intraday with much of the trade at 19.5c. All in all imo AGY was quite strong for the day.

On screen it looks like the MMs arnt able to load up much more than mid 100ks which perhaps isnt enuf to create scaring tactics for the M&Ds to stop/loss closer to the market. They might also be worried about any impending annmnt taking out their sell position in very quick time which MIGHT indicate where they think any annmnt timing might be.

I was almost always of the opinion that there will be those in the know re pending annmnts and the buy side will act accordingly, but maybe not onscreen.

We were pretty much close to what I considered fair MC value for the company prior to any OT/PEA in this Lithium environment, as false as it is !!!

Btw imo i see fair ACTUAL value at around 30c but then I’m getting dangerously close to fundamental speak. But I think one has to think such numbers r in play for the MMs as they don’t want to destroy the technical structure that’s been created to support the games they r playing.

IF the general market continues to correct and higher risk funds come to the sell party then the MMs might try and retest Ur 16c level. Imo that would almost certainly have to happen early tomorrow but would be dependant on just how short the traders have gone yesterday pending any US rally overnight, which was on the cards.

I’m a little like Warren Hogan in that it’s Looks like the markets will continually test support around the 10% correction mark ftm as there’s little to justify a larger correction unless the bearishness of US companies on forward earnings due to the US Fed overcooking interest rate hikes occurs. The warnings appear to be out for the Fed here with even trump warning the Fed not to get carried away with tightening. The US has nearly always been the best market at judging preemptive economics as they have the best mechanisms in place for such judgement, but then one must watch the huge US funds and the games they play in order to manipulate the money market for their own gains.

To get to the point, if the correction is done ftm and we see at least a bit of a bounce or consolidation at current, I hope so for the sake of my paltry super fund atm which is getting decimated, then market sentiment should slowly turn. Much depends on the next few months.

Big question for all us AGYers is will Jerko rely on just a Qtrly update and tell PA to keep mucking about with refining his processing and plant and wait on any hopeful project fast track funding arrangement to really get the volume ball moving to kick the sp back into gear.

There’s not much happening on screen
buyer-wise past the immediate sell depth, but we know how quickly this can change. Be very interested in just where u put the current resistance levels on the assumption that this manipulation has been orchestrated for longer term fund MM holds. That 20c support isn’t there for fun. Imho it’s where the accumulator currently sits and where all the winding up support appears to be building. Question being just how much of it is short traders building positions back up again.

Like U say Seagull, volume is the key to smash past the traders and I guess we’re all now hoping that JZ can come up with this project fast track play with the OTer so that there is little forward dilution.

PERHAPS just perhaps that is what all this manipulation has been about, with the OTer getting their fill in at 20c in order to factor down their position in the case of a much higher raising sp. Well that’s what I’m hoping in my dreams and gives reason to my accumulation conspiracy hypothesis.

Like I say about my ego driven boss, there’s always an ulterior motive to what he does becos of his ego drive. It’s about making him look good as that’s what drives his life. Sad really. It’s about ticking boxes for them instead of doing a job well, looking back and getting pleasure out of HOW u did the job, and not just the fact u did it to whatever level or standard.

I think this is where JZ is coming from this time around after the QQ OT problems. He’s determined to be able to walk away from this OT deal and look back and say to himself, I did the best for all shareholders this time around.

I get the clear feeling he’s a CEO that doesn’t make the same mistake twice and imho that’s why we’re still playing a waiting game and he’s prepared to let the market do its thing as he knows where that market support sits.
If I’m right we won’t see the sp drop any lower, unless there’s a general market capitulation.

The fact that JZ is in the US screams we’re close to becoming a producer and imo he’s there to drum up US fund support for perhaps a higher raising sp. Hoping for 30c. It would be pure stuff of dreams if He managed higher.

Sorry to go into a fundamental rant but for me this is where AGYs future is.

And just where do the fundamentals take over from this current technical malaise we find ourselves in?

Can’t be far away, surely.

Volume indicators and Bollingers cross referenced perhaps as a technical guide ? Just how tight r those bollingers getting?

I’ll have to have a look !!!

Thanks again Seagull. Must read the last few chart posts to see if I’ve missed anything.

Apologies to all if I have.

d.

Expand

Bollys widening again.

Damn it.

d.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	2026489	4.2¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

2026489

4.2¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.4¢	193027	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

4.4¢

193027

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	900000	0.042
3	222000	0.040
5	1331853	0.039
9	747851	0.038
16	1415149	0.037

No.

Vol.

Price($)

900000

0.042

222000

0.040

1331853

0.039

747851

0.038

1415149

0.037

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.044	193027	2
0.045	188813	4
0.046	875726	7
0.047	350237	3
0.048	100000	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.044

193027

0.045

188813

0.046

875726

0.047

350237

0.048

100000

(20min delay)
Last 4.2¢		Change 0.003(7.69%)		Mkt cap ! $61.14M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
3.9¢	4.6¢	3.9¢	$556.4K	13.01M

Bollys widening again. Damn it. d.

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