AGY (ASX) 2018 Charting

Originally posted by seagull ↑

@Kingazza
I am not that good at explaining what I think I see on the charts but will try.
I use both to help make my analysis.
The stoch 5 is the quickest and tends to move further & faster relative the stoch 14.

I believe they alert me to the short term changes in sentiment and help verification of trends.
My understanding of how to interpret & use the stochastic is that the bullish zone is above 50 & bearish below.
The stoch’s can stay over bought / oversold for extended periods and an exit signal is triggered either as the indicator crosses back below / above the over bought / oversold line again and starts to move toward the centre (the 50 line) or the indicator crosses its mov avg.
The stoch’s both seem to reverse direction (find resistance / support ) or pause around the 50 area depending on the trend.
The width of the indicator away from the average also gives a heads up that a change may be imminent.

One thing I notice a lot is that the stoch 5 will swing the whole range (20 to 80) while the stoch 14 will only travel from 20 to 50 for example (or 80 to 50) before turning back to its average (signal line) again and the trend continues.
This seems to happen a lot during consolidations and short term trends.

During longer trends what I see happening is that the centre line (50) is often the pivot point during short term reversals / rallies, a bit like support / resistance.

The sp is also often reacting to other things on my charts at the same time as the stoch’s are changing, so can alert me to a reversal and verify those places on the charts as points of interest were I think a reaction is likely.
Things like old trend lines and their extensions, fibbonachi lines, top, bottom, centre of the range box etc. (That’s why I have so many lines on my charts)

So if we are in a trend or being rerated (like we appear to be right now) and at the same time being at or near one of the projected points on my chart, I look to see where the stoch 5 is in relation to the stoch 14 and where they both are in relation to everything else.

The stochs are currently both above 50 but appear to be rejecting the overbought area (is that because the sp is at a reaction point on the chart?).
The stoch 5 has crossed below the sig line & the stoch 14 is very close to doing so which may be warning of a pause and small (normal) retracement.
The MACD is also bullish and so is also verifying that we are in an uptrend & any pull back will be a short term event.
This is the first time since the breakout last year that the MACD is verifying the change in trend.and is in sync with the other indicators.

My first projected reaction area from yesterday was at #1 on my chart around $0.365. I was not expecting it to get there today though & that was the minimum expectation target based on the previous trading range.
The maximum sp target is at #2 around $0.40 - 0.42 and corresponds to the L/T rising trend line as well as the size of the previous range box.

So putting it all together today, atm I see some signs that we may pull back from today’s highs in the short term but that may change as the day progresses.
If that happens I would expect to see the stoch 14 turn up again at the 50 line while the stoch 5 being very fast could go back to 20 before turning up again. Similar to what we saw during Dec – Jan last year.
The sp itself does not necessarily have to come back much at all but given the gap today it potentially could come back to $0.345. That is about where it would meet the rising trend again.

There is always an opposite potential outcome though and we may get an update Monday which sends the up to the next level.and beyond. But we will get a pull back at some stage while the market catches its breath & traders take profits.
The fibbonachi extension from the prev high low ( $0.48 to 0.27) is up at $0.61.
So, if we get some of the expected updates each week for the next few weeks we should expect to see a significant rally once we break above #2.
View attachment 1013563

Expand

Cool @seagull I can almost see .46 on Monday close based on the similar pattern from 4th Jan, I have circled these in purple. We re-rated .13 roughly, plotting on your graph that see's us about .46 but I think it depends on today closing above .365
Sorry for messing up your chart with black lines and purple shapes, was bored studying so thought I'd give it a go.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	545770	3.7¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

545770

3.7¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.8¢	15087	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

3.8¢

15087

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	545770	0.037
25	2702708	0.036
27	2629749	0.035
6	1226910	0.034
12	1239637	0.033

No.

Vol.

Price($)

545770

0.037

2702708

0.036

2629749

0.035

1226910

0.034

1239637

0.033

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.038	15087	1
0.039	1426254	8
0.040	697842	7
0.041	542500	5
0.042	1035817	10

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.038

15087

0.039

1426254

0.040

697842

0.041

542500

0.042

1035817

(20min delay)
Last 3.8¢		Change 0.001(2.70%)		Mkt cap ! $55.32M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
3.7¢	3.9¢	3.7¢	$81.36K	2.169M

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