2018 FAR Ltd AGM Presentation, page-40

OK here's my SNE only " formula" for dummies...the less over thought and more seat of the pants model...

Assumptions:

1: First oil at end of 2021

2: Oil price US$70

3: AU$ 79c

4: WI 13.7%

5: Shares on offer 6 B equivalent , probably consolidated to 600M or less by then

6: Production 13700 Bopd probably take a year to ramp up.

7: Life of project 30 years plus probably 10-15 years at plateau production.

8: Debt around AU$300M initially.

9: Development and production costs US$32 Bbl

10:  PE 12.

11. Reserves and resources ...plenty and likely to grow.

Formula:

13700 Bbls x 365 days x AU$ 88.6 Barrel = AU$443 m gross income

13700 Bbl's x 365 days x AU$40.3 Barrel = AU$ 201 m P & D costs.

EBITDA $242

NPAT $121 ...between EBITDA and NPAT lie an infinite set of variables that will change from year to year , so have used a simple 50% could be more or less.

EPS 2c

PER 12..

Outcome:

  Shareprice 24c under that scenario and it's a figure I am very comfortable with...especially sitting with an 8.4c average...I'm expecting it to be profitable under almost any scenario.

Odds of it being right 50% , I have sent my calculator in for a lie detection test and  have it calibrated for bias..the above has been independently audited by me...

Needless to say the bottom line could be effected in both directions by the price of oil in AU$ in particular...the example above used was AU$ 88.6 il it's currently AU$105.

The picture would change considerably with success in Gambia and /or PE...

Do not invest on the results above without first consulting a clairvoyant and a shrink but dont see a financial consultant under any circumstances..

Cheers Whisky