31c is reasonable if CTP finds the predicted reserves and...

31c is reasonable if CTP finds the predicted reserves and secures the expected cashflows from NGP.

$1 is not reasonable on this basis and will require major exploration success at somewhere like Dukas.

I did read O&GP's post and thought the methodology was very thorough and fundamentally solid, but I had a number of issues some of the input assumptions, including the ex-gate cost assumption based on operating costs of already-developed reserves rather than full cycle costs, and the PE ratio being applied to a number that is basically field EBITDA, not NPAT. As a result IMO the methodology was very well done but the conclusion was significantly overvalued. Opposing that is the opportunity for lower tariffs through regulatory changes and backhaul etc.

Personally I would be using a PE of ~8 applied to NPAT for a valuation. That requires you to deduct interest, tax, administration costs and well capex D&A from the EBITDA. Unfortunately there is so much uncertainty in price, well delivery profile and full field production cost, tariff changes, backhaul opportunities etc that it makes it very difficult to use a spreadsheet like that accurately but my own valuation for the first stage of NGP is around 20-30c. Add on a few cents for the oil and domestic contracts.

If the share price hits $1 it will be on the back of baseless ramping rather than fundamentals which was the purpose of my comment. And I'm all for some baseless ramping if it gets the SP to $1, so ramp away. Now where's that cobalt?