I would love nothing more than see TAW MC reach GXY’s MC ASAP. But to be fair you have missed a few things. GXY has already reached 209k tpa and is on target to increase that. The cash costs were US$325 for Q4 so that is about A$430. Like TAW the reserves should increase a lot, but probably not as much as TAW. GXY also has James Bay with a reserve of 40Mt at 1.4% and it will increase a bit over time also. It also has SDV which has a PFS stating it should bring in a few hundred million revenue a year for 40 years. Both JB and SDV seem to contribute very little to GXY’s current MC so most of the MC is Mt Cattlin at the moment. TAW will do very well to keep costs down to A$325 as stated above.
Anyway I agree that bald hill should reach the billion dollar status and re-rate with consistent production and shipping and the resource upgrade. Both should be and will be a lot higher when this current down turn in the cycle reverses.
The big instos control the SP of GXY and TAW and the like. GXY peaked around $3.50 in Jan 2017 before it was in full production. News was excellent throughout the year, all targets were met, quality was good, regular shipments, customers happy and further offtakes were negotiated at higher prices. What did this great news do, saw the price drop to about $1.50 by mid year. (Bought heaps more there out of interest.) so that was the downturn in the cycle manipulated by the instos, then around Sept 2017, they decided to go long and let it run all the way up to $4.50 by Jan 2018, then short back down to $2.80 where it is now. All of this corresponded to bullshit, self serving reports fromMacquarie, DB and UBS etc.
Similar things will happen to TAW, it hit about 0.55c preproduction, now down to 0.43c with a bit of help from the (not TAW specific) BS reports and down turn in the Dow. TAW not being in the asx200 and not being as controlled by the instos will see smaller swings. But when the big instos decide to let lithium and TAW run again it will move well above the 0.55c and go into the asx300 and eventually 200. So when the tide changes I would expect a peak about double where we are now. Think, GXY went triple from bottom to top last year.
So yes lots of upside, the big question is how long will the instos keep the lithium producers down. Last year it was a year peak to peak, can’t see it quite lasting that long this time. A possible indicator may be when the shorts on GXY, ORE and PLS start covering everyone will move together. I imagine the swings will continue until we see a higher penetration of EVs on the road then hold on.
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