Daily.
Positives.
Support at 12.5 – 13 held.
MACD is still above its sig line
Histogram is still above zero
Negatives
Stoch 5 & 14 are both trending down.
The MACD is trending down & back to the (rising) sig line
The relatively higher volume on Thursday as the sp tested the 12.5 low & closing back at 13 showed some support & a possible rejection of the lows initially.
However the follow through on Frid with low vol & close at what now appears as resistance is imo a sign of weakness.
The retesting of the current support has resulted in the sp closing below the rising trend line for the third day in a row. (Red line) The regular recurring nature & significance of that trend line can be seen on the charts.
Daily outlook.
After 43 days sideways there seems to be no end in sight.
As a result, it is likely that there will be further testing of the current support at 12.5 again & potentially lower. If 12.5 breaks down then the next S/T support below is around 10.5 – 11.
This thought was absolutely never a possibility 6 months ago but the continued uncertainty has now made it a distinct possibility that If this pattern continues without the company coming up with the OT soon then we will be looking at filling the open still gap down at 0.078 – 0.098.
The continued absence of the O/T is feeding the uncertainty & may help bring things to a head in the very near future & trigger large volume as stops get hit.
This coming week could be interesting.
Weekly.
Positives.
MACD still rising
Histogram still trending up
Stoch 5 remains flat & is still moving back to its avg line
Weekly support at 125 – 13 held despite the relative increase in volume.
Negatives.
Pull back from a so far minor resistance (the dotted down trending line)
MACD still below its sig line
Histogram still below zero
Stoch 5 still below its avg line
The Stoch 5 avg line still trending down
Increasing volume as the sp tests the support & closing at the low end of the weeks range.
Weekly outlook
With the indicators still mainly in negative territory, the pattern is now looking like a setup for a shakeout on the weekly time frame. (Last week’s daily had a similar pattern followed by the dip down to 12,5)
If the weekly pattern follows through, this could then result in the sp down testing 10.5.
There are some positive signs on the charts particularly the weekly but my outlook this week is a bit gloomy & I hope is wrong but it is what it is.
We just have to tough it out.
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